Bunge Limited (BG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | AlphaStreet

Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call dated Feb. 04, 2026

Company Members:

Greg Heckman — Chief Government Officer

John Neppl — Chief Monetary Officer

Mark Haden — Vice President, Investor Relations

Analysts:

Thomas Palmer — Analyst

Heather Jones — Analyst

Andrew Strelzik — Analyst

Salvator Tiano — Analyst

Benjamin Theurer — Analyst

Steven Haynes — Analyst

Derrick Whitfield — Analyst

Matthew Blair — Analyst

Manav Gupta — Analyst

Pooran Sharma — Analyst

Presentation:

operator

Good day and welcome to the Bunge International Essay Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Launch and convention name. All members can be within the pay attention solely mode. Do you have to want help, please sign a convention specialist by urgent the star key adopted by zero. After in the present day’s presentation there can be a possibility to ask questions. To ask a query you could press star then one in your phone keypad. To withdraw your query, please press star then two. Please observe this occasion is being recorded. I might now like to show the convention over to Mark Hayden. Please go forward.

Mark Haden — Vice President, Investor Relations

Nice. Thanks and thanks for becoming a member of us this morning for our fourth quarter earnings name. Earlier than we get began, I need to let you already know that we now have slides to accompany our dialogue. These could be discovered on the Investor middle on our web site@bunge.com underneath Occasions and Displays. Reconciliations of our non GAAP measures to essentially the most immediately comparable GAAP monetary measure are posted on our web site as properly. I’d prefer to direct you to slip 2 and remind you that in the present day’s presentation contains ahead trying statements that mirror Bunge’s present view with respect to future occasions, monetary efficiency and business situations.

These ahead trying statements are topic to numerous dangers and uncertainties. Fungi that gives further data in its studies on file with the SEC regarding components that might trigger precise outcomes to vary materially from these contained on this press launch and we encourage you to evaluate these components. On the decision this morning are Greg Heckman, Bunge Chief Government Officer and John Knepel, Chief Monetary Officer. I’ll now flip the decision over to Greg.

Greg Heckman — Chief Government Officer

Thanks Mark and good morning everybody. I need to begin this morning by thanking the crew and recognizing their extraordinary work all over the world each all through 2025 and as we transfer into 2026. This previous yr was one in all execution, funding and integration, all in a market atmosphere that demanded agility and self-discipline. In 2025, we reached a serious milestone with the completion of our vitera mixture. The combination work our groups achieved has been distinctive and we stay extremely engaged and excited concerning the progress we’re persevering with to make collectively, constructing on a basis of cultures that have been already aligned on doing what is correct for purchasers.

This mixture brings each organizations collectively inside our confirmed finish to finish worth chain working mannequin, eradicating complexity and strengthening shared objectives. Consequently, we’ve elevated connectivity and the circulation of data throughout our mixed group, an important element to how we function. As I’ve stated earlier than, it’s our aggressive benefit to have nice individuals throughout the group having the identical data on the identical time and dealing towards unified goals. This alignment is already delivering outcomes we’re unlocking synergies in origination, merchandising, processing and distribution, optimizing flows between origin and vacation spot and capturing margin by improved logistics and higher coordination.

For instance, beforehand Vitara’s origination actions in most areas would have been managed purely by a merchandising lens, leveraging a nimble platform constructed to function on brief lead occasions. Right this moment, individuals managing the identical community of elevators at the moment are making choices with a extra full image of our world platform, taking an built-in view that balances pace with long term issues. This not solely permits us to maintain our processing and refining vegetation operating at excessive capacities, but in addition leads to extra worthwhile outcomes for each farmers and shoppers. We’ve got capabilities in the present day that we didn’t have earlier than, and we’re simply getting began.

Most of these advantages are sturdy and can compound over time. We are going to present extra particulars on synergy seize, capital allocation priorities and our mixed long run outlook at our Investor Day on March tenth. And whereas we’ve been integrating Vitarra, we’ve additionally been working to advance our massive greenfield tasks, navigating commerce flows, coverage uncertainty and geopolitical volatility, all whereas staying targeted on connecting farmers to finish market demand throughout meals, feed and gasoline. Shifting to our working efficiency, our fourth quarter mirrored increased leads to all our segments, pushed by robust execution and our expanded footprint and capabilities.

John will go into extra particulars in a second. Externally, the atmosphere stays complicated with restricted ahead visibility. Geopolitical tensions, evolving commerce flows and uncertainty round biofuel coverage, notably within the US Proceed to affect farmer and shopper conduct. Primarily based on what we are able to see in the present day within the present atmosphere and ahead curves, we Count on full yr 2026 adjusted EPS within the vary of $7.50 to $8 and with that I’ll flip it over to John for extra particulars on our financials and outlook.

John Neppl — Chief Monetary Officer

Thanks Greg and good morning everybody. Let’s flip to the earnings Highlights on Slide 5. Our reported fourth quarter earnings per share was $0.49 in comparison with $4.36 within the fourth quarter of 2024. Our reported outcomes included an unfavorable mark to market timing distinction of $0.55 per share, an unfavorable affect of $0.95, primarily from notable objects associated to the settlement of our U.S. outlined profit pension plan, Vitara transaction integration price and an impairment of a long run funding. Prior yr outcomes included a Web optimistic affect of $0.98 from notable objects primarily associated to the acquire on the sale of our sugar and bioenergy three way partnership, partially offset by Vitara transaction integration prices.

Adjusted EPS was $1.99 within the fourth quarter, which included roughly $50 million of web tax advantages versus $2.13 within the prior yr. Adjusted phase earnings earlier than curiosity and taxes OR EBIT was 756 million within the quarter versus 546 million final yr, with all segments exhibiting increased yr over yr outcomes. In soybean processing and refining phase, barely increased outcomes have been primarily pushed by South America, reflecting increased processing and refining leads to Argentina and Brazil. Within the vacation spot worth chain, decrease processing leads to Europe and origination within the Americas have been partially offset by improved leads to Asia.

Ends in North America have been decrease in each processing and refining. Greater course of volumes have been largely attributed to the corporate’s expanded manufacturing capability. In Argentina, increased merchandise volumes mirrored the corporate’s expanded soybean origination footprint. Within the softseed processing and refining phase, increased outcomes have been primarily pushed by higher common processing margins and the addition of Vitara softseed belongings and capabilities. In North America, increased processing outcomes have been partially offset by decrease leads to refining. In Europe, outcomes have been increased in processing and biodiesel however decrease in refining. In Argentina, outcomes have been increased in processing and modestly increased in refining.

Ends in world softseeds and International Oil’s merchandising actions additionally elevated reflecting robust execution. Greater softseed course of volumes primarily mirrored the corporate’s elevated manufacturing capability in Argentina, Canada and Europe. Greater merchandise volumes have been pushed by the corporate’s expanded softseeds origination footprint for different oilseeds processing and refining phase, improved outcomes mirrored stronger specialty oils efficiency in Asia and North America together with increased world oils Merchandising exercise leads to Europe have been according to the prior yr. Within the grain merchandising and milling phase, increased outcomes have been primarily pushed by world wheat and barley in addition to wheat milling, partially offset by decrease leads to world corn and ocean freight.

Greater volumes have been primarily mirrored the corporate’s expanded grain dealing with footprint and capabilities together with the massive world grain crops. Prior yr outcomes included corn milling which was divested within the second quarter of 2025. The rise in company bills was primarily pushed by the addition of Itera. Greater different outcomes primarily mirrored our captive insurance coverage program, partially offset by $10 million of prior yr earnings from the sugar and bioenergy three way partnership that was divested within the fourth quarter of 2024. Web curiosity expense of $176 million was up within the quarter in comparison with final yr reflecting the addition of Itera, partially offset by decrease common web rates of interest.

Let’s flip to slip 6 the place you possibly can see our adjusted EPS and EBIT developments over the previous 5 years. The Latest efficiency developments mirror much less volatility attributable to extra balanced world provide and demand atmosphere, notably in grains and the affect of ongoing commerce and biofuel uncertainty that has created a really spot transactional market atmosphere. Slide 7 particulars our capital allocation for the complete yr we now have generated simply over $1.7 billion of adjusted funds from operations. After allocating $485 million to sustaining CapEx, which incorporates upkeep, environmental well being and security, we had roughly $1.25 billion of discretionary money circulation obtainable.

We paid $459 million in dividends and invested roughly $1.2 billion in progress and productiveness associated CAPEX. We obtained roughly $1.2 billion of money proceeds from the sale of quite a lot of belongings and companies and we additionally repurchased 6.7 million Bunge shares for $551 million. This resulted in $173 million retained money circulation. Shifting to slip 8 yr finish, web debt excluding readily marketable inventories or rmi was roughly $700 million. The latest change versus historical past displays the affect of the acquisition debt assumed and issued associated to Vitara. Our adjusted leverage ratio which displays our adjusted web debt to adjusted EBITDA was 1.9 occasions on the finish of the fourth quarter.

Slide 9 highlights our liquidity place which stays robust. At yr finish we had dedicated credit score services of roughly $9.7 billion, of which roughly $9 billion was unused and obtainable, offering ample liquidity to handle the continuing capital wants of our bigger mixed firm. Please flip to Slide 10. For the trailing twelve months, adjusted ROIC was 8.1% and ROIC was 6.9%. Adjusting for development and progress on our massive multi yr tasks and extra money on our stability sheet, our adjusted ROIC would enhance to 9.3% and ROIC to 7.5%. As a reminder from final quarter, we decreased each our weighted common price of capital and adjusted weighted common price of capital from 7% and seven.7% respectively to six% and 6.7% respectively, reflecting the latest improve in our credit standing, change in capital construction of the mixed firm and decrease rate of interest atmosphere.

Importantly, we’re not decreasing our long run funding return expectations. Shifting to Slide 11 for the yr, we produced discretionary money circulation of roughly $1.25 billion just like the prior yr and a money circulation yield or yield or money return on fairness of 9.4% in comparison with our price of fairness 7.2%. Please flip to Slide 12 in our 2026 outlook, considering the present margin and macro atmosphere of ahead curves. We Forecast Full 12 months 2026 adjusted EPS within the vary of $7.50 to $8.00. As Greg talked about in his remarks, the atmosphere stays complicated with restricted ahead visibility, notably associated to U.S.

biofuel coverage. Consequently, we consider the curves don’t correctly mirror what alternatives ought to develop through the yr as soon as the coverage is finalized. Moreover, we count on the next for 2026 adjusted annual efficient tax price within the vary of 23% to 27%, web curiosity expense within the vary of $575 million to $625 million, capital expenditures within the vary of 1.5 to $1.7 billion, and depreciation amortization of roughly $975 million. With that, I’ll flip issues again over to Greg for some closing feedback.

Greg Heckman — Chief Government Officer

Thanks, John. So earlier than I’m going to Q and A, I need to simply provide just a few ideas. Via our disciplined execution, portfolio optimization and strategic funding, we’ve reshaped this firm right into a extra agile, diversified and resilient Bunge. We’ve overcome a number of obstacles, together with geopolitical shifts that proceed to reshape world commerce flows. But by all of that, our crew has executed, tailored and delivered. These experiences have solely strengthened our confidence in our capacity to succeed going ahead. With the addition of Itera, we now have higher attain throughout origins and locations, deeper perception into world flows, and extra functionality and optionality to serve clients and handle danger.

We’re nonetheless on a change journey, and steady enchancment is a part of who we’re. On the identical time, our Bunge crew is working from a place of higher power than at any level in our historical past. We’ve by no means been in a greater place, we’ve by no means been extra wanted, and we’ve by no means been extra ready because of our individuals and the worldwide infrastructure we function, and we look ahead to sharing extra on the alternatives forward of us at our Investor Day on March 10. Within the meantime, I’ll shut by saying, as we glance forward, I’m assured that capabilities that we’ve constructed will enable us to ship worth in any atmosphere whereas persevering with to attach farmers to the markets that maintain communities and feed the world.

With that, we’ll flip to Q and A.

Questions and Solutions:

operator

Thanks. We are going to now start the Query and Reply session. To ask a query, you could press Star, then one in your phone keypad. When you have been utilizing a speakerphone, please choose up your handset earlier than urgent the keys. If at any time your query has been addressed and also you wish to withdraw your query, please press Star then two. Presently, we’ll pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The primary query comes from Tom Palmer with JP Morgan. Please go forward.

Thomas Palmer

Thanks and good morning, Greg and John, I do know that your steerage doesn’t. I do know your steerage doesn’t take a view on how business situations would possibly change, however I had a pair questions right here. One, marvel to what extent you suppose the RVO may be mirrored within the curve in the present day. After which after we see board crush margins shifting increased over the previous month or so, has this had a lot affect on the margins that you’ll be able to seize in your cross operations up thus far? Thanks.

Greg Heckman

Positive. I’ll begin on that, John. So, yeah, you’re appropriate. Our outlook, we didn’t put any assumptions about what the RVO would do to the curves or the profitability past what the curves are already exhibiting. Now, as you known as out, we’ve undoubtedly seen the US Curves, particularly within the second half. Proper. Enhance somewhat bit. We predict these in all probability pushed by RVO tailwind expectations. Now, that being stated, there’s not a lot enterprise executed past Q1 proper now. We’re nonetheless fairly open on the stability of the yr. After which the opposite characteristic, I believe you’ve bought fairly excessive oil shares within the US till we see that demand come on, which is somewhat completely different than the remainder of the world the place the oil S&DS are fairly balanced. That might get cleaned up fairly shortly ought to we get the RVO enacted. However the precise particulars are necessary and the timing is necessary. So all of us wait. However to remain constant, we simply gave the forecast on what we are able to see in the present day and what the curves are in the present day.

John Neppl

Yeah, perhaps simply add, Tom, that on prime oil has definitely been up and down primarily based on market expectations, however we’ve seen good, regular demand for soybean meal and I believe that’s a worldwide phenomenon. However within the US as properly, soybean meal demand has been robust. In order that’s no less than serving to from a crush perspective.

Thomas Palmer

Understood, thanks. Had a query simply on the cadence for the yr. I believe traditionally earnings have been a bit extra weighted to the second half of the yr than the primary half, however the composition of the enterprise has clearly modified fairly a bit right here. So any ideas on each form of the earnings cadence as we take into consideration this yr and to what extent that may be reflective of what regular seasonality would possibly seem like within the enterprise as we glance ahead? Thanks.

John Neppl

Yeah, Tom, I believe how we’re this yr and I don’t know that that is essentially going to be indicative of the longer term, however you already know, simply given the place the ahead curve sit in the present day, we’re first half, second half, option to extra like a 30, 70 this yr, which is somewhat lighter first half than perhaps what we usually see. After which Even on the Q1, Q2, we’re a 35, 65 sort break up. So, you already know, absent the affect of RVO change, you already know, in Q1. And actually we’re going to be by the top of Q1 by the point that in all probability will get resolved, you already know, fairly mild Q1. So 3565 first half and 3070 for the complete yr.

Thomas Palmer

Okay, thanks.

operator

Thanks. Our subsequent query comes from Heather Jones with Heather Jones Analysis. Please go forward.

Heather Jones

Good morning. Thanks for the query. I simply wished to only make clear one factor on the steerage. So usually you guys use the ahead curve to set your steerage and, you already know, regulate that primarily based on what you’re seeing within the bodily markets. Is that any completely different? Did you do something completely different this time? Like simply, did you simply take the curves after which make changes for what you’re seeing so far as foundation, et cetera, or. Simply wished to make clear that.

Greg Heckman

Yeah. Heather, thanks for the query. Yeah, we, we’re somewhat boring in our consistency. So, yeah, we use the very same method that we’ve been as a result of we simply suppose that makes it simpler to grasp, you already know, how we, how we come at this every quarter. However yeah.

John Neppl

A nd I might simply say it’s, you already know, proper now, clearly we’d count on as soon as the RVO is finalized for the situations to enhance. Among the dynamics we’re ready to listen to are clearly finalization or reallocation, the compliance years, are they going to have retroactive 20, 26 to the primary of the yr when it’s going to truly get finalized and begin taking impact. So there’s nonetheless some unknowns there till it truly will get codified. So relatively than attempt to guess on all that, we simply take the curves the way in which they’re and let the market do its work.

Greg Heckman

And in an ideal world, we’d get some readability forward of our Investor Day on March tenth. However fingers crossed.

Heather Jones

I used to be on the brink of say my fingers crossed too. That’s an enormous image query. So since 2223 commerce lanes have shifted, you don’t have the disruption you had then. You’ve had fairly a little bit of crush capability added in North America and South America. However you have got extra constructive biofuel coverage in Indonesia, Brazil, Europe. And if that is something, if the US Is something like telegraphed, it’s going to be way more constructive within the US So placing all that collectively, elevated capability, however a lot higher demand. Do you envision a situation the place crush margins Each gentle and soy may. You. Know, replicate what we noticed within the 22, 23 timeframe. I do know these are quite a lot of what ifs, however simply would like to get your ideas on a situation like that.

Greg Heckman

Yep. No, you’ve known as out quite a lot of the important thing issues that we’re seeing. There’s little question. You already know, as John stated, the takeaway on meal globally has been higher than everybody anticipated. A part of that, I believe, continues to be the expansion we’re seeing in protein demand, particularly in rooster and the expansion there on the biofuel coverage. No, you’re precisely proper. There are issues occurring form of in all places, whether or not it’s the B15 in Brazil and ultimately going to B16 later this yr. We predict Indonesia does coverage. They’ve proven the power to proceed to make adjustments there to adapt what we’re seeing in Germany on the pink after which, in fact, our personal biofuel coverage right here.

However I believe what you’re seeing is that governments perceive the biofuel coverage. It’s good for the farming neighborhood. It’s good for all these communities that worth that begins on the farm gate then strikes by the worth chain. So I believe we count on biofuel coverage to proceed to be constructive. So far as evaluating again to sure years, I don’t know that I could make that actual name in the present day, however I believe we really feel it’s undoubtedly constructive. What we do like, and also you ask about gentle, is we now have a way more balanced footprint globally, not solely in soy, however in gentle.

And we’ve added a bigger share of sentimental crush now. And naturally that’s undoubtedly favorable with the oil demand and that may favor gentle crush going ahead. So we predict our extra balanced footprint there can be useful for certain.

John Neppl

Yeah. I would simply add on, Heather, the opposite factor is, we haven’t actually seen any significant world disruption, whether or not it’s climate or geopolitical right here for a bit. I imply, there’s been clearly the commerce points with China, however once you actually take into consideration an enormous shock to the worldwide system, there actually hasn’t been one for some time. And a climate occasion may actually have a big effect. And given our world footprint going ahead, I believe we really feel like we’re positioned nearly as good or higher than anybody to deal with that.

Heather Jones

Okay, thanks.

operator

Thanks. The subsequent query comes from Andrew Strelczyk with bmo. Please go forward.

Andrew Strelzik

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the query. I had a pair issues. The primary one, you already know, simply from an operational perspective, I hoped that you could possibly perhaps examine the Vatera operations, you already know, form of on the Time of the acquisition to once you guys took over the Bunge enterprise. And I assume the place I’m coming from is, you already know, I’m curious in case you see comparable alternatives to form of rework the earnings energy of the Vitera piece separate of the synergies by inner operations, as has been the case at Bunge, or if there are any significant variations. That you simply’ve noticed.

Greg Heckman

You already know, I’d say. The reply is sure. Was one in all, one of many issues I believe each firms have been enthusiastic about coming collectively and doing the deal have been that greatest and higher practices. And as we’re in a position to share that, you already know, it begins in all places from, you already know, the security of our individuals as we introduced the security applications collectively and relaunch the mixed security program on the perfect and higher practices. And undoubtedly, you already know, there’s a little bit of a replay of what we, you already know, what we did, you already know, in 2019 after we joined Bunge. We’re now trying on the mixed portfolio and ensuring that we’re operating the best belongings and the best companies the place we now have a proper to win for the long run.

You already know, all of the capital allocation is completed from the middle and that’s wholesome for the groups to. To compete for that capital. Aligning the rewards applications and staying targeted externally on our clients at each ends of the worth chain and having the ability to do this from that world diversified stability that we now have throughout crops, throughout geographies, and throughout origination in addition to crush and distribution. We’ve bought extra capillarity and granularity at origination and vacation spot than we’ve ever had. And in the end you wrap all that, you already know, in a danger tradition. And I do suppose, you already know, Bunge, after we joined, had unimaginable capabilities, as does Vitara, and it’s been nice.

You already know, our groups did a ton of labor pre shut, and we hit the bottom operating on day one with one view of our world positions for the individuals to make choices with. The groups have embraced the tradition. They perceive how the danger groups and the business groups work collectively in an effort to, you already know, assist handle the earnings in danger and run our belongings at excessive capability utilizations and assist our clients handle their danger. And, you already know, I’ll let you know, on this atmosphere, that’s actually wanted now and that has actual worth and, you already know, that’s the one which continues to, you already know, to pay advantages time and again.

So look, we’re getting began. We’ve bought, you already know, we’ve bought rather a lot to do, however we actually like the way in which the groups are partaking and dealing collectively right here early on and also you’re proper. We’ve executed quite a lot of this earlier than so it’s nearly, you already know, doing the work.

Andrew Strelzik

Okay, nice. That was tremendous useful and I apologize if I missed this, however are you able to share what you’re assuming in 26 within the steerage for synergies on the price and business facet and perhaps how we must always take into consideration that phasing in inside that the form of break up you gave for, for EPS by the yr. Thanks.

John Neppl

Yeah, Andrew, that is John. So I might say on the, on the price facet, you already know, which is what we’ve bought baked into our forecast primarily we’re feeling superb about the place we’re. We’re estimating about 190 million of realized synergies in 2026, which is definitely forward of schedule. You already know, after we take a look at what we laid out, you already know, on the time we filed our proxy laid out our expectation progress synergies, you already know, we anticipated a second yr, full yr, about 175 million roughly. We’re truly going to do higher than that in six. So we’ve taken rather a lot, we took some motion forward of shut and really began getting the group structured and prepared for the shut of the transaction.

So we had a little bit of a head begin coming in to the shut and you already know, in 2025 and prior we realized somewhat over 70 million of synergy already by the top of 2025 and so we’re 190 for subsequent yr for 2026 yr. We’re in now with the run price by the top of the yr someplace round 220 million dol run price by the top of the yr. So really feel superb about that. After all that 190 is baked into our forecast on the business facet I believe that’s nonetheless creating. You already know we, we’ve bought line of sight to quite a lot of good issues however like something, these ones are, you already know, somewhat harder to quantify individually however I might say a comparatively modest quantity of synergy baked into the forecast on the, on the business facet.

Andrew Strelzik

Nice, thanks very a lot.

operator

Thanks. Our subsequent query is from Salvatore Tiano with Financial institution of America. Please go forward.

Salvator Tiano

Sure, thanks very a lot. So I need to begin somewhat bit with a synergy query. If I heard appropriately, you stated this yr we count on to understand 190 million or 90.

John Neppl

190. 190.

Salvator Tiano

So I assume this bear estimates is round 70 or 75 cents in EPS right here in your progress. So how is the steerage I assume on the low finish and albeit even adjusting for the, for the dividend even on the excessive finish, you already know, decrease yr on yr. It appears somewhat bit counterintuitive since you already know, Even with out the RVOs the working atmosphere appears to have been somewhat bit higher for commodities buying and selling for biofuels. So does this indicate primarily a cloth decline yr on yr earlier than the synergies? And why would that be the case?

John Neppl

Yeah, I had somewhat bit bother listening to you however I might take a look at it this manner. We’re going to have, you already know, with the complete yr of Itera clearly we now have a full yr affect of, of share excellent shares. We’ve got full yr of curiosity price, full yr of depreciation. A few of these impacts clearly and I might say components of the enterprise which can be but to be performing in addition to I believe they may round grains and the merchandising enterprise. I believe going ahead we nonetheless have work to do there. However total I believe you already know, once more we’re utilizing the ahead curves as they stand in the present day and I believe that you already know, getting some readability there and a few upside, you already know, can be some alternative.

However at this level that’s how we’re seeing it.

Greg Heckman

And of that, of that 190 synergy, in case you look versus 25, there’s 120 incremental. We did about 70 in 25. So to your modeling it’s 120 incremental in 26.

Salvator Tiano

Okay, good. In order that’s extraordinarily useful. And the opposite factor I need to ask is somewhat bit concerning the cadence you offered earlier. It appears to us that this implying form of $0.80 in Q1, 150 in Q2 after which round 270 within the second half. So my two questions are firstly, you already know, $0.80 in Q1 that will be in all probability, you already know, the bottom EPS determine in a very long time. And theoretically once more the concept is that the markets are somewhat bit higher than they have been on the trough of final yr. GDP is way decrease. So are there any particular objects or segments that could be affected by timing? One thing that’s pushing earnings away from Q1? And the second a part of the query is that if we’re probably not assuming a serious enchancment within the ahead curves within the steerage, how are we attending to round 270 EPS within the second half in every of the quarters? And if the RVOs come, are we speaking about 353 and even $4 in some unspecified time in the future in quarterly EPS?

John Neppl

Yeah, I believe in case you look, you’re actually shut on clearly the primary, the primary, the primary half form of the breakdown there when it comes to per quarter and Then the second half, I believe, you already know, we’re , you already know, a couple of 40, 60 on the second half at this level, but it surely’s nonetheless manner early, so somewhat tough to, to foretell that. However I believe, look there, you already know, rather a lot can occur. You already know, quite a lot of Q1s baked already. We’re, we’re a month greater than a month into Q1. I believe that, you already know, we’re off to an okay begin.

However, you already know, once more, when biofuel coverage will get resolved, Q1 goes to have largely been accomplished. And so we’re hopeful that it’s going to offer us some upside right here as we glance by the stability of the yr. However, yeah, Q1 is a extremely mild quarter. You already know, we’re a a lot larger firm, you already know, and. However quite a lot of. Plenty of, you already know, uncertainty in what we discovered, what we’ve seen, actually, second half of 25 and particularly into Q1 of 26 may be very spot. Clients on each ends, farmers are spot, our clients are very spot. And it simply, you already know, creates much less alternative for us.

Greg Heckman

And in case you look and, you already know, I would say in case you look form of popping out of, you already know, Q4, you’ve bought on soy, you’ve bought common margins are down in Q1 versus Q4, you already know, in gentle, you’ve bought, you already know, crush margins down form of seasonally versus Q4. And then you definitely say, what? Nicely, form of, how do you come out of Q4? You already know, one, you bought to thank the crew for, you already know, actually executing very properly in 1 / 4 the place you had actually no market catalysts, heavy shares. You’ve bought uncertainty across the bio and commerce coverage.

So I believe what we noticed there may be, you already know, the crew executed very properly, though with ample provides, you already know, farmers don’t need to promote on the decrease costs. And, you already know, your feed and meals clients and gasoline clients haven’t wanted to purchase as a result of they’ve been rewarded for ready. In order that that atmosphere is certainly carrying over into Q1. Now, that being stated, as in Q4, I believe there’s alternatives there that the crew will execute properly in opposition to it. The opposite form of characteristic is the Australian harvest was delayed considerably by climate. That’s now undoubtedly an necessary characteristic of us, and that’s sliding a few of that from Q4 into Q1.

However it additionally has introduced margins down somewhat bit, the way in which that that harvest is creating and the demand is creating. So these are form of a number of the options.

Salvator Tiano

Thanks very a lot.

operator

Thanks. Our subsequent query is from Ben Toyer with Barclays please go forward.

Benjamin Theurer

Good morning, Greg. John, thanks for taking my query one on grain dealing with, truly, simply to assist us perceive, as a result of grain merchandising, it was once not as related, however now with Vitera, it begins to grow to be somewhat extra of a heavyweight as properly. So how ought to we take into consideration the present situations? 2025 was quite a lot of uncertainty with commerce, the conflicts between us, China, et cetera. In order you look by the alternatives within the enterprise, within the mixed enterprise, and we discuss concerning the merchandising, perhaps ocean freight, and so on. How ought to we take into consideration the 2026 setup right here? And what’s a stage of disruption or exercise that you simply want on this enterprise to essentially take advantage of out of the bigger footprint that you simply’re having?

Greg Heckman

Yeah, you already know, I, you already know, begin by, you already know, reminding us, proper, we’ve bought six months underneath our belt operating it collectively. So this, we’re trying ahead to the, you already know, the primary half as is a really, you already know, seasonal, seasonal enterprise. We’ll get to see, you already know, Q1 and Q2 with the mixed platform after which we’ll begin lapping the time that we ran collectively within the second half of final yr. So, look, the groups are persevering with to, you already know, regulate and do the situation evaluation for a lot of issues that may occur. However there may be that necessary baseload enterprise, proper, Serving clients each day.

We’ve bought the geographical stability. We must always have the best possible price place to be there with the best product, the best amount, the best high quality on the proper value. So we’ll do this baseload enterprise after which regulate to no matter disruptions. And we’ve already seen a few of that the place we’ve needed to restore origins and locations and the place we’ve truly needed to develop some new locations due to a number of the commerce disruption. So I believe that turns into customary a part of the enterprise. And as you known as out as properly, Ocean Freight, we’ve mixed that group. We’re a really massive consumer, in fact, of the ocean freight.

We’re beginning to see the advantages of that bigger platform and a few of that, you already know, decreasing the price between origin, vacation spot and having the ability to react sooner to alter. So I believe a part of it’s simply getting the reps, attending to fewer programs and processes and having the groups proceed to make these enhancements. So regardless of the atmosphere, we all know it’s going to enhance ultimately. However, you already know, till it does, I do know our crew will get the entire profit that we are able to out of it.

John Neppl

And Ben, perhaps I’d simply add, I imply, we, you already know, for Q4, we solely had a $30 million enhance yr over yr within the phase. And I believe as you look into 2026, it is best to see a greater yr over yr enchancment. Particularly within the first half clearly after we don’t have the comps are in opposition to, you already know, the prior Bungie solely. However even within the second half we count on the comps to be higher versus the mixed firm second half. So it’s shifting the best path. It’s simply that’s the most important a part of Vitara’s enterprise. And whereas we have been actually, actually happy with how properly the Crush was folded in in a short time as a result of we had a a lot bigger Crush footprint.

In order that folded in very properly. The community shortly. You may have much more individuals, much more belongings, much more places concerned. On the merchandising and dealing with facet, it’s extra work, you already know. However again to Greg’s level, you already know, we’re doing the best issues, we bought the groups targeted. It’s going to take somewhat bit longer to get that buzzing.

Benjamin Theurer

Okay, after which my second query actual fast is capex clearly final yr was give or take 1.7 billion of which somewhat greater than 1.2 billion was for progress. The steerage you’ve issued for this yr is kind of the identical stage. If we take the midpoint right here just a bit bit decrease, I think the sustaining Capex goes somewhat bit up. However it’s in all probability nonetheless going to be roughly a billion in progress investments. So how ought to we take into consideration the return on investments right here? That billion plus final yr, in all probability one other billion this yr. What’s just like the return that you simply’re anticipating from that and particularly the timing of these returns?

John Neppl

Yeah, let me begin with perhaps discuss concerning the mega challenge. So our, our spend on mega tasks. So the 4 massive capital tasks we, the multi yr tasks, that spend goes to drop about 350 million in 2026 as we end form of get to the completion dates on the tasks. In order that leaves, that’s about 6, name it 600 to 650 million on the mega tasks that can be largely wrapped up by the top of the yr. We actually don’t, we now have not modeled in actually a lot if any contribution from these tasks. So the Morristown plant is in commissioning now and can be operating this yr.

Clearly quite a lot of the time this yr goes to be spent on qualifying the plant for our meals clients. We are going to get some quantity by there, however in all probability not excessive sufficient capability utilization to have a significant contribution in 26. So we’ve probably not added a lot within the forecast for that. After which our Destrehan barge unloading and crush plant enlargement. Keep in mind the crush vegetation within the three way partnership with, with Chevron after which the barge unloading, these can be up mid yr and naturally, you already know, we’re not, we don’t have rather a lot baked into the forecast on a contribution in 26 for these both.

I believe they’ll actually be, you already know, they’ll actually be contributing much more as we get into 27. After which our, the ultimate challenge is the West Zaan plant in Netherlands that can be up and operating and you already know, for essentially the most half early 27. So not quite a lot of contribution from these in 26, however we must always see a bump up in 27 relative to that spend we’ve bought. Additionally we’ve earmarked just a few hundred million for different progress tasks in 26 to spherical out the billion greenback tough quantity. These haven’t all been authorised and we’ll evaluate these as we go and will or might not determine to do these.

However we’ve bought that included within the forecast. That’s why we now have a variety of 1.1.5 to 1.7. If we did all of that, we’d be nearer to 1.7. If we select to not do a few of these tasks, we’ll be nearer to 1.5. And people, you already know, clearly something we’re setting up throughout 26 probably wouldn’t have a significant affect on 26 returns.

Benjamin Theurer

Bought it. Thanks very a lot.

operator

Thanks. The subsequent query comes from Steven Haynes with Morgan Stanley. Please go forward.

Steven Haynes

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my query. Heaps been coated. Possibly simply one other manner on the steerage. I believe up to now you’ve offered some directional, I assume, information by phase. I understand it’s perhaps a bit tougher simply given the primary half of final yr doesn’t have Vitara in it and this yr has a full contribution. However is there a manner that, you already know, perhaps you could possibly body by phase, you already know, working again from the midpoint of your information, like no matter adjusted EBIT is form of assumed at that stage. You know the way you see that splitting out between every of your companies this yr. Thanks.

John Neppl

Yeah, yeah. So in case you look. Steven, that is John. When you take a look at form of our core phase ebay, in order that that’s outlined because the phase outcomes earlier than company. I’d take a look at it this manner. About half that EBIT goes to be in our soy processing and refining is how we’re it for the yr. So name that fifty%, a couple of quarter of it in our gentle processing and refining phase. And Then grain, merchandising and milling, we’re forecasting to be round 20% of it. After which the remaining 5% could be our different processing, refining.

That’s form of how we see the tough forecast for the yr. After which in fact, offsetting that to a point would be the company, the company and different, which we’d count on to be, you already know, name it 120, 125 million per quarter. Detrimental in opposition to that.

Steven Haynes

Okay, thanks. Admire all the assistance element.

operator

Thanks. The subsequent query is from Derek Whitfield with Texas Capital. Please go forward.

Derrick Whitfield

Good morning all and thanks for taking my questions. With regard to the rvo, the administration has been fairly supportive of the US and farmers practically at each flip. We’ve got heard in latest weeks a variety of 5.2 to five.6 billion gallons for bpd volumes. I assume. The place is your view on the place the administration will land on absolute volumes and the half RIN era idea for imported merchandise and feedstocks?

John Neppl

Derek, that is John. I believe on the 5.2 to five.6, I don’t know that we see the place it’s going to finish up. Clearly we desire the 5.6, clearly. However we’re hopeful they’ll no less than begin on the midpoint of the vary and perhaps go up from there, particularly on condition that it seems and fairly probably that the half we’re in, the 50% lease will not be going to take impact in 2026. They’re going to kick that may down the street to 2027 and decide then. So hopefully given that call, they’ll transfer to the excessive facet of this vary of 5.2 to five.6. However we clearly don’t know but and hoping right here over the following few weeks to get some readability.

Derrick Whitfield

Dale, let’s hope your crystal ball is correct on the 5.6 facet. However perhaps on an identical matter. So I learn in a latest commerce article that Bunge was acknowledged as the primary firm to certify soybeans to be used within the manufacturing of SAF underneath the CORSIA plus protocol. To the diploma that. You possibly can, may you communicate to that market alternative for Bunge from this growth? Given the favorable value realization for SAF over RD and the tightness we’re seeing in certified feedstocks for saf.

John Neppl

Yeah, look, I believe we don’t have something baked into our forecast for that, so something that develops through the yr goes to be upside for us. I believe it’s nonetheless a reasonably nascent market, no less than from the way in which we participated up thus far, however definitely is Going to be incremental demand. It might be huge incremental demand if it actually will get rolling. However, you already know, we work rather a lot with the top gasoline clients. We’ve bought relationships with all the massive gasoline producers and people who produce jet gasoline. So, you already know, we’re optimistic that does that acquire some traction.

You already know, we’ll be proper there to take part. However I might let you know in our 2026 numbers, we don’t have something significant baked in for that. So trying ahead to seeing the way it develops.

Greg Heckman

However we’re, you already know, we’re targeted on this for the long run. And one of many issues that, you already know, we’ve bought with the partnership with Chevron and the partnership with Repsol and a number of the different gasoline clients, proper, it’s not solely serving them with the present origination that we now have, however now having the contact we do globally with extra farmers than anybody else as we’re working to develop a few of these new novel seeds and canopy crops could have the power to fulfill what their wants are for the long run, whether or not it’s SAF or renewable diesel or conventional biodiesel.

So actually excited concerning the mixed capabilities of the corporate and undoubtedly need to be the associate of alternative for the gasoline business.

Derrick Whitfield

Nice, thanks.

operator

Thanks. The subsequent query comes from Matthew Blair with tph. Please go forward.

Matthew Blair

Nice. Thanks for taking my query. So for the $750 to $8 information you talked about, you’re, you’re simply taking, you already know, the present futures curve. As we take into consideration the unfold there, the low finish versus the excessive finish, what determines that’s that simply primarily based on Bunge’s execution, you already know, what, what places you on the low finish of that information? What places you on the excessive finish? Thanks.

Greg Heckman

Yeah, I’ll begin, John. Positive. You already know, I believe how we see. You already know, the market proceed to develop. From a requirement standpoint, we talked concerning the soy shares are undoubtedly heavy, however we now have seen that’s solely within the US Service provider milling. We’ll see how as we now have that first half of the yr operating, the mixed footprint and because the crops come off right here in Australia, as a number of the commerce disruption that we’ve had, we actually count on it to be not as difficult as final yr. That needs to be good for our merchandising phase from a, you already know, from an total. The opposite is simply we proceed to work not solely on the price synergies, as John stated, form of making an attempt to ship extra and sooner after which the business synergies as we’re on the entrance finish, because the groups work collectively, as these plans proceed to develop these may proceed to profit us within the second half. So I believe the mixed platform, we’ve simply bought extra levers to drag on each the price and in addition to the margin facet than we’ve ever had.

John Neppl

And I might simply add Matthew, that, you already know, once you take a look at our soy and gentle, we are able to use the ahead curves for a majority of that enterprise. And so we really feel like whether or not we agree with the curves or not, that’s what we use and that’s bought a reasonably respectable stage of specificity to it. However once you get to the merchandising and milling facet, there aren’t any forks happens and so you already know what the atmosphere’s going to be like. I believe if we, you already know, if we proceed on with a worldwide heavy inventory spot, clients, you already know, not quite a lot of alternative in that market, it’s going to be somewhat bit more durable.

However once more, volatility disruption, world demand shifts, commerce coverage adjustments, all these issues create alternative on the merchandising facet that it’s actually onerous to mannequin in. So you already know, we’ll, you already know, clearly have the ability to be in place, as Greg identified, make the most of these issues.

Greg Heckman

In all probability two different issues price mentioning, proper. We noticed final yr, you already know, China drawing quite a lot of beans out of, you already know, Brazil, notably in South America. General that was created headwinds for crush there. After which in fact as a US China difficulty bought solved, then taking beans out of the US within the fall, which created some headwinds for crush margins there, we’d count on to see a extra regular circulation within the coming yr. After which on the gentle facet, in fact we’ve had two years in a row of powerful sunseed manufacturing within the Black Sea Europe space and that’s been onerous on margin.

So whereas we’ve bought some extra stability in Argentina on the solar crushed facet and we had good crops there within the second half, I believe if we are able to get solar crop, that needs to be enhancements in Black Sea in Europe for solar crushing. So these are a number of the flags, I assume a number of the larger points. That we’re watching develop.

Matthew Blair

Sounds good. And for the comply with up. So renewable diesel margins within the US are already shifting up fairly a bit within the first quarter. Are there any indicators in your system but on a bigger level for soybean oil from the renewable diesel area, Any indicators that US renewable diesel utilization is stepping up as these margins enhance?

John Neppl

We’re seeing some modest pull. However actually shares proceed to construct in oil and I believe till we get readability and the producers have certainty, we’re nonetheless going to see shares construct. But when we take a look at the mannequin and we take a look at the demand, it may flip in a short time and we may go from a surplus oil atmosphere in the present day the place we’re constructing shares, to a really tight market in a short time. And our expectation could be if we get to the 5.2 or 5.6, relying on even underneath both of these situations, there’s going to be substantial pull on soybean oil, canola oil as favored feedstocks, together with the home low CI. And we’ll see issues tighten up pretty shortly. Clearly, everyone’s form of ready to see what’s going to occur. Yeah, there’s beginning to be some anticipation of that, however not wherever close to what we’ll count on as soon as issues are finalized.

Matthew Blair

Nice. Thanks to your feedback.

operator

Thanks. The subsequent query is from Manav Gupta with ubs. Please go forward.

Manav Gupta

Hello. So my first query is the buyback was fairly robust in 3Q and sorry, in 3Q and it dropped off a cliff in 4Q such as you went from 545 to six million. I’m simply making an attempt to grasp why such a steep drop and the way ought to we take a look at buybacks going forward?

John Neppl

Yeah, we simply, you already know, we stepped available in the market to get a majority of it executed. We simply, we didn’t full in any respect, you already know, on the finish of Q3 and going into Q4. However we’re completely dedicated to wrapping up the remaining program and we’ll get that executed I believe pretty quickly relative to ongoing. I believe as we glance ahead, we undoubtedly see a possibility to make share buyback a much bigger a part of our capital allocation course of. And we’re going to debate that extra on investor day, definitely as we extra of a ahead outlook. However this machine ought to generate quite a lot of money going ahead. And our view is that return to shareholders goes to be a extra important a part of our ongoing capital allocation as we transfer ahead. However we’ll spotlight extra particulars on that in March.

Manav Gupta

My second query is after we take a look at the road for 1Q, it’s like 176. Your steerage is implying 80. Like the place do you suppose the road is getting it so fallacious versus what you’re guiding? Like why is the road virtually double the place you’re when it comes to your steerage?

John Neppl

Yeah, I believe that’s tough to say perhaps at this level apart from perhaps understanding the speed of what we’re seeing, you already know, that perhaps the RVO affect would begin getting traction in Q1. And you already know, that clearly has been delayed and you already know, we’re pretty locked for Q1. So even when we get as issues enhance, we now have some open capability to seize a few of that. However you already know, by the point the RVO will get finalized and enacted, we’re going to be by the quarter and, and perhaps there’s just a few a little bit of disconnect when it comes to the timing of.

Greg Heckman

That, I’d say additionally, you already know, what I hope you heard is we form of talked by that whereas that is pretty again half loaded as we discuss concerning the vary, it looks like there are much more issues that might form of flip to the favorable versus be difficult as we take into consideration how markets develop, coverage, develops extra normalized commerce flows, you already know, versus what we noticed in 25 and you already know, the place we’ve bought, you already know, an enormous, massive world machine to run with quite a lot of lengthy lead occasions, all these issues are favorable. So I believe we had to take a look at the issues that might, may form of tip to detrimental or optimistic. I believe we really feel issues are perhaps extra bent to the optimistic once you roll all of them up. So I hope that’s clear.

operator

Thanks. Thanks. The subsequent query is from Puran Sharma with Stevens Inc. Please go forward.

Pooran Sharma

Good morning and thanks for the query. Simply wished to start out off and get somewhat bit extra granularity into the business synergy alternative. I believe you talked about just a few particulars on the decision however was simply questioning, you already know, what are the alternatives that you simply’ve form of uncovered and what are a number of the issues that you simply’re engaged on. Something form of increased stage could be useful, thanks.

Greg Heckman

Positive. There’s little question as a processor, you already know, the vertical nature of this mixture with Witherra being a lot stronger in origination and Bunge having a much bigger processing footprint as a processor, the extra you should buy direct from the farm, the higher that’s for controlling every little thing out of your pipelines and capability, utilization and high quality and yields and every little thing. And we undoubtedly bought quite a lot of deal with rising the p.c we purchase direct from farmers and offering the markets for them. And now we’ve bought way more functionality to do this. We’re seeing that, that acquire proceed to push ahead, increased p.c purchased direct and that’ll proceed.

After which as we talked earlier, once you’re, you already know, optimizing the full footprint, you’ll make completely different choices than once you have been opponents on the timing of understanding the wants of a processing plant and in addition understanding the wants of our origination and having the ability to maintain the flows shifting, you already know, by the ports and to 3rd get together clients. So getting the reps with the crew and getting an understanding of our mixed capabilities has been nice. After which Even in case you take one thing like. And discuss our gentle seed crushing platform, you already know, I talked about, we’re way more balanced not solely on our seed origination and world merchandising, the place we’ve seen a lot of alternatives with a number of the commerce disruptions to have the ability to proceed to get farmer seed to market and discover the best demand, but in addition on the meal, on the solar meal and the canola and rapeseed meal, the place after we take a look at the mixed footprint, we’ve been in a position to join origins and locations that weren’t related earlier than.

After which as a few of these commerce lanes have been shut off and weren’t economical, we’ve even developed some new markets that didn’t exist earlier than that weren’t utilizing a few of these merchandise. And so we’ve been in a position to develop these markets. And it’s simply the mixed capabilities as we get the repetitions to proceed to peel these alternatives again. And simply the way in which the groups are working collectively, I simply couldn’t be extra happy. And I’ve had the chance to do quite a lot of journey round and go to vegetation and go to the places of work and go to ports and, you already know, it’s unbelievable.

You go right into a room and no one, no one says, I used to be by terror, I used to be Bungie. It’s simply everyone’s Bungie. The groups are excited concerning the capabilities that we’ve bought on this world platform and what we are able to do to serve our clients, to work collectively. And there’s no lack of challenges on the planet proper now, however I don’t suppose anyone is healthier outfitted than Bunge to take care of it.

operator

Thanks once more. In case you have a query, please press star then one. We’ve got no additional questions. Girls and gents, this concludes our query and reply session. I wish to flip the convention again over to Greg Heckman for any closing remarks.

Greg Heckman

Similar to to thank everyone for becoming a member of us for in the present day. We respect your curiosity in Bunge. We look ahead to chatting with you once more very quickly and hope everyone has an incredible day. Thanks.

operator

Thanks. The convention is now concluded. Thanks for attending in the present day’s presentation. You might now disconnect.

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