The Indian economic system is anticipated to have grown 7.4% within the December quarter from the yr earlier than, with estimates starting from 7% to eight.7%, in keeping with an ET ballot. Festive season demand, aided by items and companies tax (GST) rationalisation, supported exercise. Economists warning that the estimates might be revised because the statistics ministry unveils the brand new GDP sequence with FY23 as the bottom yr on February 27. Anoushka Sawhney takes a take a look at the numbers:
Sectoral Drivers of Growth
Strong Growth Led By:
- Rural and concrete consumption
- Manufacturing increase from GST cuts
- Enchancment within the companies sector
Financial system Stays Resilient Amid World Headwinds:
- Home demand stays supportive
- Providers sector stays sturdy
- Economists see FY26 growth broadly regular
Sequential Slowdown, But Outlook Regular
Growth is projected at 7.4% for FY26, whereas the Reserve Financial institution of India (RBI) has projected 7.4%, with financial surveys pegging growth at round 7%.GDP growth development (y-o-y):
- 9.2% in 2023–24
- 6.5% in 2024–25
- 7.4% in 2025–26 (first advance estimates)
There was a sequential slowdown from 8.2% in Q2 FY26, attributed to an unfavourable base impact, contraction in authorities capex and moderation in export growth. Nevertheless, high-frequency indicators recommend improved growth momentum in Q3.
New GDP Sequence: What’s Altering
- Base yr revised to FY23 from FY12; launch of revised annual and quarterly figures
- New knowledge sources: GST, e-Vahan
- Shift to double deflation in manufacturing
- Higher casual sector measurement utilizing unincorporated sector enterprises survey, periodic labour drive survey
- Wider protection of autonomous and native our bodies
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