Producers proceed to divert the wafer capability towards greater‑margin AI‑centered DRAM wants corresponding to these in information centres, and this leaves smartphone OEMs with restricted visibility
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GORODENKOFF
Global smartphone shipments are forecast to fall 12 per cent y-o-y in 2026, dropping slightly below 1.1 billion items, the bottom annual quantity since 2013, when the worldwide 4G transition was nonetheless on, analysis agency Counterpoint mentioned in an evaluation on Friday.
A extreme memory crunch, coupled with elongated substitute cycles in absence of enormous specification modifications are set to be the first set off of the downturn, which is anticipated to lengthen into 2027.
“Premium segments will stay comparatively resilient, whereas decrease segments will face the sharpest margin and affordability pressures due to shrinking LPDDR4 provide and rising element prices. Consequently, OEMs centered on decrease segments and rising markets will take the most important hit,” Counterpoint mentioned .
long run delays
Counterpoint Principal Analyst Yang Wang mentioned, ”The impression is anticipated to proceed by means of H2 2027, as it should take a number of quarters for memory provide growth to materialise. Decrease-end smartphones are seemingly to be affected probably the most, particularly as LPDDR4 provide is shrinking sooner than anticipated. OEMs are already responding with launch delays, streamlined portfolios and specification trade-offs. We’ve additionally noticed 10-20 per cent value will increase throughout some Android OEM portfolios in January 2026.”
“Apple and Samsung are seemingly to climate the headwinds higher due to stronger provide chain integration, greater pricing energy, and continued premiumisation,” Counterpoint mentioned. We additionally count on the second-hand smartphone market to develop in 2026 as a few of these choices in the sub $300 phase will look extra enticing to budget-conscious patrons, the report added.
Talking to businessline concerning the state of affairs in Indian smartphone market, Counterpoint senior analyst Prachir Singh mentioned that there’s set to be a 5-10 per cent cargo decline in India due to the memory crunch. OEMs are both passing on the upper memory costs to shoppers or in some situations there’s a type of “Shrinkflation” with commerce off of specs in subsequent fashions, he mentioned. The memory crunch is essentially provide‑aspect in nature, and restoration will rely upon the tempo of recent memory capability coming on-line, he added.
Producers proceed to divert the wafer capability towards greater‑margin AI‑centered DRAM wants corresponding to these in information centres, and this leaves smartphone OEMs with restricted visibility. Cell LPDDR4/5 costs in Q2 2026 are anticipated to attain almost thrice the degrees seen in Q3 2025, reflecting an unprecedented squeeze in provide.
Printed on February 27, 2026
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