India’s actual gross home product (GDP) growth projection for 2026-27 has been revised upwards by 20 foundation factors to 7-7.4%, with the financial system possible to obtain the higher finish of the vary, chief financial advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran mentioned on Friday.
A foundation level is a hundredth of a share level.
The Financial Survey in January had projected a growth fee of 6.8-7.2%. The upward revision follows the introduction of a brand new GDP collection with base yr 2022-23, changing 2011-12. “In the meanwhile, we really feel that the chance is on the upside on this vary, that’s the financial system is extra possible to obtain a quantity nearer to 7.4% somewhat than 7%. In fact, international uncertainties are the draw back danger issue to consider,” the CEA mentioned at a press convention. Nageswaran recognized funding and consumption as key growth drivers for the following monetary yr. Additional, improved coverage certainty ensuing from profitable commerce agreements, together with India-US and India-EU commerce progress, will help exports and capital flows, he mentioned.
Statistics and programme implementation ministry secretary Saurabh Garg mentioned the up to date GDP collection incorporates expanded information sources together with items and companies tax filings, e-Vahan registrations, the Public Finance Administration System, the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises and the Periodic Labour Power Survey. The methodology now incorporates double deflation or single extrapolation method. The Indian financial system is anticipated to increase 7.6% in 2025-26, as towards 7.4% growth projected within the first advance estimates primarily based on the earlier base yr.
The second advance estimate implies that the GDP should develop a minimum of 7.3% within the ongoing fourth quarter for the full-year estimate of seven.6% to be achieved. In accordance to Nageswaran, the momentum within the financial system is “adequate to ship us that 7.3% growth fee within the fourth quarter”. India’s GDP grew 7.8% within the third quarter of this fiscal, 8.4% within the second quarter and 6.7% within the second quarter.
Growth achieved in 2024-25 has additionally been revised upwards, to 7.1% from 6.5%, whereas for 2023-24 it has revised downwards to 7.2% from 9.2%.
Nageswaran mentioned three consecutive years of seven% plus GDP growth “corroborates and vindicates” the Financial Survey’s revision to India’s potential GDP growth fee to round 7%.>
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