Jefferies on Ambuja Cement
Impartial, TP reduce to Rs 465
Ambuja seems to have modified gear on a number of fronts Delayed capex targets: ongoing enlargement from 109mt to 119mt; earlier plans to develop to 155mt being recalibrated/delayed, Prices: Ambuja now expects prices to say no from Rs4,400/t in FY26 by Rs150-200/t vs. earlier steering of below Rs3,800/t as of Mar27 exit.4Q prices have been flattish qoq at Rs4,500/t (together with Rs250/t impression of West Asia disaster).Moreover, mgmt believes with demand getting softer, stress on pricing rise.Rising uncertainty round Ambuja’s development plans and price constructions, worsened by West Asia disaster is a trigger for concern; discounted to some extent in valuations (EV/t $110).
Jefferies on Chola Make investments
Purchase, TP Rs 1960
Mar Q PAT of Rs16.4bn (+30% YoY) beat JEFe by 11% on increased NII/ charges, partly offset by increased opex.
Auto disbursals have been strong; CSEL/ SME returned to development submit recalibration.
With momentum constructing throughout segments, count on 21% AUM CAGR with secure NIMs over FY26-28e regardless of some macro dangers.
AQ improved sharply; credit score price ought to ease on decrease credit score price in VF & CSEL
Anticipate 24% EPS CAGR, 20% ROE over FY26-28 & see valuations as enticing.
Jefferies on Manappuram Fin
Improve to Purchase, TP Raised to Rs 360 from Rs285
4Q PAT of Rs4bn (+69% QoQ) beat our Rs2.9bn on Rs1.3bn provn launch from ECL reset at Asirvad.
AUM rose 22% QoQ, however NIMs fell on decrease yield. Gold mortgage development is selecting up.
MGFL’s FY26 revenue have been hit by NIM stress & excessive provisions
Imagine NIMs have bottomed and provns have peaked.
Revenue ought to develop 2.6x and ROE ought to enhance to 13% (7% FY26) over FY26-28e.
At 1.6x FY27E BV valuations appear cheap.
Jefferies on Godrej Prop
Purchase, TP Rs 2475
Godrej Properties expects pre-sales and money collections to develop by 14%/20% in FY27, on a big base.
A soar in building spends throughout FY26 and top quality of pre-sales in base are anticipated to drive a 20% reported ROE and FCF turnaround by FY28.
As a precursor, administration introduced a dividend after a decade & just lately promoters purchased a 5% stake
Imagine sustained monetary parameter supply can drive important rerating.
Jefferies on AB Cap
Purchase, TP Rs 425
Consol March Q PAT grew 29% YoY to Rs11bn.
NBFC PAT missed est as decrease NII & increased opex offset decrease provision. AQ improved.
In LI, VNB grew 14%, led by premium development as margins have been secure with increased rider attachment, higher combine offsetting GST drag.
HI premium development was robust w/higher CoR tendencies
Increase LI est, reduce AMC est. At NBFC, see 26% AUM CAGR, regular NIM, & credit score price normalisation driving 23% EPS CAGR and ROE enlargement to 16% by FY28e.
Jefferies on Dabur
Suggestion Purchase, Goal ₹610
Darkish horse alternative because the staples tide turns
Staples business demand is exhibiting inexperienced shoots after a chronic stoop
Dabur inventory has been below stress because of macro elements
Stock has sharply de-rated, and even a modest business restoration may drive upside
Sustained re-rating might be led by higher execution with the brand new India CEO on the helm
BUY for enticing risk-reward
Jefferies India Technique
India Politics – Modi’s grip strengthens additional
5 states to see a authorities change
BJP continues development of bettering efficiency since 2024
Populist development in state elections has continued
BJP’s robust exhibiting over the previous 2 years, with victories in eight of 12 state elections
The WB win bolsters the BJP throughout Jap India, the place the celebration now guidelines the main states
Social gathering manifestos proceed to emphasise increased earnings transfers and populist schemes
Thus, the capex burden will stay with the central authorities
Subsequent main political occasion: UP elections due in March ‘27
CLSA on BHEL
U-p, TP Rs 282
Operationally, BHEL has turned with FY26 top-line development of 19% YoY driving its Ebitda margin to six.9%, +255bps on a low base
However high quality of development was not good, as its gross margin fell 150bps & enlargement was led by 304bps decrease non-cash provisions and FX beneficial properties
BHEL has rallied on the power safety theme over previous month, however don’t see any new orders whereas it’s costly at a 51.2x FY27CL PE as its order influx peaked in FY25
CLSA on Manappuram Fin
Maintain, TP Rs 305
4QFY26 standalone PAT missed estimate by 14%, pushed by a 6% NII miss and higher-than-expected provisions
Latter was pushed by a one-time write-off of Rs840m in car finance section
Would characterise 4QFY26 as extra of the identical.
Gold mortgage development was robust, rising c.30% QoQ pushed by 7% QoQ development in tonnage.
Nonetheless, this was pushed by an additional discount in yields, down 80bp QoQ to 17.7%.
Notice that since administration undertook this technique 4 quarters in the past, gold mortgage yields have declined 400bp.
Administration talked about that yields have now bottomed out.
Reported LTV was secure at 57%, however assume end-of-period LTV can be a lot increased.
CLSA on Godrej Prop
O-P, TP Rs 2600
Reported robust development in cashflows.
Administration guided for 14% YoY presales development in FY27 regardless of a excessive base for FY26 and moderation in business development.
It believes housing demand stays wholesome throughout markets.
Whereas collections and money circulate proceed to lag presales in FY26, GPL expects regular development in FY27 and a pointy enhance in FY28, pushed by undertaking completions.
HSBC on Ambuja Cement
Purchase TP reduce to Rs 560
4QFY26: ACEM reported one other miss with flattish ASP and better freight prices driving muted EBITDA/t
Administration feedback about shifting focus in the direction of bettering utilisation and a price discount of INR500/t are positiveHSBC on Godrej Prop
Purchase, TP Rs 2900
Pre-sales steering of INR390bn (up 14% yoy); launch steering up c14% yoy, assortment steering up 20% yoy
Anticipate Godrej to show FCFE optimistic in FY27 as enterprise growth is ready to average and collections choose up
HSBC on Ather Eng
Purchase, TP Rs 1050
Profitability targets might push out because of commodity headwinds, however long-term thesis is undamaged
EV penetration tendencies stay important, whereas Ather’s idiosyncratic efficiency stays top-notch
Stock not low cost however superior model, execution in EV area are attractiveNOMURA
Nomura on Chola
Impartial, TP Rs 1760
Transferring on from a troublesome yr, ready for subsequent
AUM development steering (20-23%) for FY27E range-bound; credit score price steering 10bp decrease y-y for FY27E
4Q26: 10% beat on internet revenue; administration created provision overlays
LIft FY27F internet revenue by 2%
Nomura on Ather Eng
Purchase, TP Rs 1120
Robust development visibility; preserve prime choose in 2Ws
EL platform launch and community enlargement to considerably broaden volumes
Close to-term margin stress threat 4QFY26: EBITDA margin at -5.9% (Nomura est: -6.7)
Imagine present demand itself is far increased than provide, and enhance in gasoline costs might be an additional catalyst
JPMORGAN on BHEL
UW TP Rs 220
Stock is up 58%/38% over previous 1 yr/3M vs NIFTY50 at -1%/-6%
This Sharp outperformance supplies a very good exit alternative in a deeply cyclical title, particularly on condition that better of thermal energy plant ordering cycle is already behind us
That is evident from proven fact that BHEL’s FY26 order inflows fell 19% y/y & energy section orders fell 27% y/y
Estimate an additional decline of 12% y/y in FY27E in complete OI.
BHEL’s FY25 and FY26 profitability has been boosted by provision write-backs and foreign exchange beneficial properties
Rise of power storage methods (ESS) together with low cost photo voltaic poses a long-term existential menace to quantum of coal-based energy technology crops that India will want
Because of this, present inventory worth greater than adequately elements within the long-term revenue potential
JPM on Tata Tech
Impartial, TP Rs 560
4Q org income development at 7.8% CC QQ was strongest in IT/ERD earnings season helped by deal ramp ups and JLR returning to a standard run-rate.
FY27 org CC income development information at double digits (10%) must be simply achievable given robust exit fee (5%) which makes ask fee low at 1.5% CQGR.
It has gained 4 massive offers in 4Q, two extra in Apr and two extra anticipated to shut in 8-12 weeks that present visibility.
Steering bakes in potential headwinds from the Center East battle and no enchancment within the demand atmosphere
Ebitda margins ought to proceed to extend from 16% in 4Q26 to 18% in 4Q27 pushed by working leverage, offshore shift and worker pyramid
Valuations at 30x/26x 1Y/2Y fwd PE is at higher finish of friends.
JPMorgan on Petronet LNG
Suggestion Chubby; Goal ₹335
Beat on volumes and on UoP recoveries
Higher-than-feared volumes, together with well timed recoveries of historic Use or Pay fees, have been key positives for the quarter
Lengthy-term volumes are probably nonetheless at a lowered run fee
New capability commissioning might not be absolutely utilized within the present atmosphere
Anticipate the inventory worth response to be marginally optimistic near-term
MORGAN STANLEY on BHEL
OW, TP raised to Rs 444
Macro positioning for inventory is bettering in an Indian context
Imagine BHEL’s turnaround may proceed to shock markets.
This fall had a lot of optimistic surprises – for instance, 4Q execution run fee (energy: +54% YoY), margin enlargement, & robust working money flows
Catalysts – Improved income execution; Constant energy section margins that enhance market confidence & Enchancment in receivables place (money circulate conversion).
MS on Manappuram Fin
EW, TP Rs 270
Administration is targeted on gold mortgage development (+31% QoQ) by aligning yields (-100bp QoQ) with friends.
It indicated a calibrated, quality-led method to non-gold companies.
Steering was principally qualitative; it aspires to fifteen% consolidated ROE in F28.
Restricted visibility in non-gold segments retains us EW.MS on AB Cap
OW, TP Rs 408
NBFC executed effectively on asset high quality and mortgage development, delivering a PBT beat regardless of softer NIM.
Life insurance coverage reported a significant VNB and VNB margin beat; nevertheless, EV missed because of adverse variances (some transient)
Morgan Stanley on KEI Industries
Downgrade to Equal-weight from Chubby
Goal worth: ₹5,213 versus ₹4,860
This fall PAT beat estimates led by stronger margins regardless of softer quantity development
Home C&W income grew 23% whereas exports remained weak
Brokerage sees income development supported largely by increased commodity costs and rupee depreciation
Warns of margin stress from rising competitors in wires section
Cuts FY27/FY28 EPS estimates by 3-4%
Says risk-reward now balanced after 35% outperformance versus Sensex in six months
Morgan Stanley on Coal India
Keep Equal-weight
Goal worth: ₹420 versus ₹410
Raises realization assumptions because of stronger coal costs and e-auction premiums
Increased uncooked materials and working prices offset pricing advantages
Cuts FY27/FY28 EPS estimates by 9%/6%
Goal worth revised marginally increased on improved long-term development expectations
Morgan Stanley on India Technique – Nayant Parekh
Income, EBITDA and internet revenue development stood at 13%, 11% and 11% year-on-year, respectively
Common EBITDA margin is 27%, consistent with analysts’ estimates
20 Nifty shares have reported income development of 13% (4 ppt above estimate) and internet revenue development of seven% (3ppt above estimates)
To date, the broader market has reported income and internet revenue development of 13% year-on-year, respectively, and margin compression of 24 bps
Revenue development was strongest for Supplies, Utilities and Financials, whereas Client Discretionary and Vitality reported revenue declines
Industrials and Supplies led the beats vs. analysts’ expectations, whereas Client Discretionary lagged
GOLDMAN SACHS on Tata Tech
Promote TP Rs 470
Reported an in-line 4Q.
Income / EBITDA have been +22% / +8% yoy.
Administration maintained FY27E steering for double digit natural income development & launched FY27E EBITDA margin outlook of 18.% vs FY26 at 15.7% & FY25 of 18.1%
TATE believes that pent up new car growth applications which have been stalled in FY26 because of tariff associated uncertainties ought to come again in FY27 & massive new EV product growth write downs at Stellantis, GM, Ford, Renault are unlikely to trigger any significant pressures.
FY27 margin enlargement is predicted largely from higher worker utilization, worker pyramid changes and AI associated working efficiencies
Quick time period blip in BMW revenue contribution is right down to yr finish price allocation & is unlikely to pause underlying sequential revenue development
TATE believes that the continuing center East disaster is unlikely to impression capital spending on new car applications at European and US automakers which in its view, must spend to deal successfully with menace from Chinese language competitors
Kotak Securities on BHEL
Suggestion Promote, Goal ₹140 Earlier Goal ₹120
Good outcomes after some time
Robust execution and gross margin enlargement drive beat
Money flows from operations boosted by flat receivables year-on-year
Coal gasification an added alternative, the place BHEL has robust positioning
Citi on Exide
Suggestion Purchase, Goal ₹420
This fall Leads to-line with estimates
Some challenges to exports section because of adversarial geopolitical panorama
Commodity price pressures stay elevated
Income development throughout segments has been encouraging
Stay optimistic on development trajectoryCiti India Economics
BJP’s japanese beneficial properties broaden geographic foothold
Regional election ends in 5 states, which collectively account for one-fifth of India’s GDP, replicate continued political beneficial properties for PM Modi’s alliance
General outcomes underscore PM Modi’s continued recognition and his celebration’s renewed geographical enlargement
West Bengal’s election outcomes will solely enhance the BJP’s Rajya Sabha seat tally in 2029
Present Rajya Sabha composition is sufficiently favorable for the federal government to implement its legislative agenda
Relating to macro coverage, markets would hope {that a} robust political mandate
Simpler coordination with state govts will facilitate higher implementation of varied coverage and course of reforms.
Macquarie India Technique
BJP and Modi consolidating additional
Modi’s celebration main in West Bengal, Assam, and Puducherry; TVK the shock package deal in Tamil Nadu
The chance of the BJP forming the federal government in Kerala and Tamil Nadu was all the time low
Imagine Modi’s efforts to consolidate his place throughout a number of states because the underwhelming efficiency within the May 2024 elections help higher political stability and financial growth
Alignment between BJP-led state governments and the BJP-led central authorities ought to allow extra coordinated policymaking and growth
Towards a backdrop of restricted political stability globally and rising geopolitical tensions, consider India stands out
TN, Assam, West Bengal, and Kerala at present have fiscal deficits above 3%
The sixteenth Finance Fee (for 2026-31) has really useful a strict annual fiscal deficit restrict for states at 3%
And all 4 states at present are in breach of this 3% goal
Source link
#Stock #Market #Dwell #Sensex #drops #factors #Nifty
