After witnessing excessive volatility over the past week, crude oil costs settled marginally decrease. The Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Alternate (ICE) ($64.80/barrel) was down 1.2 per cent. Whereas the crude oil futures on the MCX (₹5,302/barrel) misplaced a marginal 0.2 per cent.
Brent futures ($64.80)
Brent crude oil futures noticed a zig-zag motion final week. Within the first half, it fell to mark a four-year low of $58.40. However then, it surged again rapidly.
Nevertheless, the contract fell wanting surpassing the resistance at $66. As long as the contract lies beneath this degree, there shall be a bearish bias.
A resumption in downtrend from the present degree can drag the contract to $58 after which presumably to $56.
However, in case the contract cracks the barrier at $66, it may well transfer as much as $69-70.70 value band.
MCX-Crude oil (₹5,302)
The April crude oil futures tumbled to mark a low of ₹4,798 on Wednesday. However there was an intraday restoration the place the contract closed at ₹5,302. So, the value degree of ₹5,000 is related as a assist.
Nevertheless, the contract has resistance ranges forward at ₹5,450 and ₹5,750. Additionally, the broader bias is bearish.
So, if crude oil futures begins falling once more, it may well retest ₹4,800. A breach of this may drag the contract to ₹4,700 after which presumably to ₹4,300 if the bears retain the energy.
For the contract to show the outlook constructive, it ought to cross over the important thing resistance degree of ₹5,750. Till then, bears shall be better off.
Commerce technique: Merchants can brief crude oil futures (April) at ₹5,400 and place a stop-loss at ₹5,550. When the contract declines to ₹5,100, tighten the stop-loss to ₹5,350. Liquidate the longs at ₹4,800. Threat-averse merchants can avoid this commerce.
Revealed on April 12, 2025
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