The International Trade Analysis Institute (GTRI) has referred to as on India to reassess its trade settlement with the USA after the US Supreme Courtroom dominated that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority by imposing further tariffs beneath the Worldwide Emergency Financial Powers Act (IEEPA). This choice comes as India and the US are in superior negotiations over an interim trade deal, with Indian officers due to journey to Washington to finalise the settlement’s textual content. The timing of the Supreme Courtroom’s ruling, simply weeks after each nations issued a joint assertion outlining the contours of the deal, provides contemporary complexities to the negotiations and should affect India’s method to ongoing talks.
On 20 February 2026, Chief Justice John Roberts acknowledged that the IEEPA doesn’t authorise unilateral tariff motion and that the Trump administration cited no statute allowing such measures. The Court’s choice follows Trump’s announcement of an extra 100% tariff on Chinese language imports, elevating complete US duties to about 130%. The transfer, seen as a serious escalation in US-China trade tensions since 2018, was in response to China’s restrictions on uncommon-earth exports, that are crucial for US defence, clear-vitality, and expertise sectors.
Proceed with warning
In its evaluation, GTRI warned that “no deal with the US is ever ultimate.” The suppose tank really useful that India proceed with warning in its negotiations and emphasised the necessity for “equal phrases,” in addition to safeguarding strategic autonomy. GTRI additional suggested India to keep away from relying on “shifting US guarantees,” and as a substitute prioritise self-reliance in crucial applied sciences and minerals to defend towards future trade shocks.
The current removing of reciprocal tariffs frees about 55% of India’s exports to the US from the earlier 18% obligation. These items will now solely be topic to customary most-favoured nation (MFN) tariffs in accordance to international trade guidelines. Nonetheless, Part 232 tariffs of fifty% on metal and aluminium and 25% on sure auto parts will stay, whereas merchandise comprising round 40% of India’s export worth, resembling smartphones, petroleum merchandise, and medicines, stay exempt from US tariffs, in accordance to GTRI.
US-China trade dispute
The GTRI report highlighted the dangers posed by the continued US-China trade dispute, notably the impression of China’s dominance in uncommon-earth minerals. “The impression shall be felt shortly. Costs of EVs, wind generators, and semiconductor components are anticipated to rise, whereas the US will strive to “good friend-shore” its mineral provide chains to Australia, Vietnam, and Canada. China, in the meantime, is probably going to redirect provides towards its non-Western companions to strengthen various industrial networks,” GTRI stated.
GTRI famous that Washington stays closely reliant on Beijing for a spread of products, together with electronics, textiles, footwear, white items, and photo voltaic panels. The report identified that ought to the US search help from its allies, the prices for these supplies might enhance additional, as these nations can’t quickly match China’s uncommon-earth provide capabilities.
The suppose tank noticed that “in contrast to the US, which regularly acts earlier than weighing financial penalties, China seems extra deliberate and higher ready,” underscoring China’s strategic method within the ongoing tariff and provide chain disputes.
GTRI additionally urged that India ought to capitalise on its impartial place by strengthening partnerships with each Western and BRICS nations. In accordance to the report, advancing negotiations with out compromising on key pursuits and specializing in better self-reliance in strategic sectors would higher insulate the Indian financial system from unpredictable shifts in international trade insurance policies.
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