New Delhi, Displaying a resilient financial system in the Asia-Pacific area amid international uncertainties, India’s GDP will grow at 6.5 per cent in the fiscal 12 months ending March 31, 2026, S&P Global Ratings mentioned on Tuesday.
This assumes the upcoming monsoon season can be regular and that commodity – particularly crude – costs can be delicate,” mentioned the worldwide monetary establishment in its newest quarterly financial replace for Asia-Pacific economies.
“Cooling meals inflation, the tax advantages introduced in the nation’s funds for the fiscal 12 months ending March 2026, and decrease borrowing prices will help discretionary consumption,” it added.
As tariffs have a tendency to be levied on items, commerce can be extra resilient in economies the place a considerable share of exports is of providers. That is the case for the Philippines and, particularly, India.
On rate cuts, S&P Global Ratings projected that that the Reserve Financial institution of India (RBI) will cut rates of interest by one other 75 bps-100 bps in the present cycle.
“Easing meals inflation and decrease crude costs will transfer headline inflation nearer to the central financial institution goal of 4 per cent in the fiscal 12 months ending March 2026 and monetary coverage is contained,” in accordance to the report.
Given the quantity of coverage measures and exterior pressures hitting Asia-Pacific, “the robustness of our forecasts underscores the resilience of the regional economies,” it famous.
Nevertheless, the US tariff hikes on China’s exports will weigh on its financial system.
“We had integrated 10 per cent U.S. tariffs in our November baseline, implying an efficient U.S. tariff on Chinese language exports of about 25 per cent. The extra 10 per cent levies will carry the efficient rate to about 35 per cent. That may depress China’s progress through decrease exports, funding and different spillover results,” mentioned the report.
The hit on GDP progress ought to be most important for Malaysia (due to semiconductors), Singapore (primarily due to pharmaceutical merchandise), and South Korea (primarily due to cars), it added.
-IANS
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