By Siddhi Nawar & Samriddhi Singh Mahar
As 2025 begins, India finds itself at an important juncture, balancing robust financial momentum with rising financial headwinds. Exports have skyrocketed 67% in a decade, hitting USD 778.21 billion in 2023-24, whilst world uncertainties and looming Trump tariffs forged shadows on commerce. The RBI has injected a complete of Rs 1.02 lakh crore into Open Market Operations (OMOs) to handle liquidity – Rs 59,000 crore by means of display screen-based mostly OMOs and Rs 43,000 crore by way of international trade swaps.
Development stays on observe, with GDP projected at 6.4% for FY25, powered by 7.3% personal consumption development, signaling a rural demand revival. Funding stays resilient, with GFCF set to rise 6.4%, as per the Financial Survey 2025.
But, turbulence persists. January 2025 noticed India’s steepest inventory market decline in 23 years, with Nifty at 23,508.40 and Sensex at 77,500.57. The providers PMI plunged to 56.5, its weakest since November 2022, although job creation and manufacturing provided some stability.
As coverage measures, world shifts, and home resilience form the months forward, India’s financial trajectory hinges on how properly it adapts to shifting tides, turning challenges into alternatives.
GST Collections
India’s Items and Companies Tax (GST) income for January 2025 reached Rs. 1,95,506 crore, a 12.3% enhance from Rs. 1,74,106 crore in January 2024, marking the highest income since April 2024. CGST collections rose to Rs. 36,077 crore, whereas SGST collections elevated to Rs. 44,942 crore.
Gross home income stood at Rs. 1,47,124 crore, up by 10% from Rs. 1,33,705 crore final yr. Gross import income rose by 19.8%, reaching Rs. 48,382 crore.
Maharashtra led the state-sensible GST collections with Rs. 32,335 crore, adopted by Gujarat (Rs. 12,135 crore), Karnataka (Rs. 14,353 crore), Tamil Nadu (Rs. 11,496 crore), and Haryana (Rs. 10,284 crore).
On the decrease finish, Lakshadweep recorded the lowest GST assortment at Rs. 1 crore, with different states like Manipur, Mizoram, and Nagaland additionally seeing low figures.
(Supply: Ministry of Finance)
Inflation
India’s retail inflation (CPI) dropped to 4.31% in January 2025, down from 5.22% in December, bringing aid to customers, particularly in rural and concrete areas. Meals costs, a key CPI element, noticed a notable decline.
India’s Retail Inflation in the month of January stood at 4.31%, the lowest since August 2024, and marking a 91 foundation level decline from December’s 5.22%. The drop in costs was led by a sharp decline in meals costs, marking a steep fall from the previous months, moderating costs for the shopper economic system.
On the wholesale entrance, WPI-based mostly inflation stood at 2.31%, barely down from 2.37% in December. The manufacturing sector confirmed robust development with a 2.51% enhance, a pointy restoration from -1.20% in January 2024, pushed by the authorities’s concentrate on boosting home manufacturing.
(Supply: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Ministry of Commerce and Business)
Buying Supervisor’s Index (PMI)
India’s Buying Managers’ Index (PMI) for January confirmed combined outcomes throughout sectors.
India’s Manufacturing PMI in January accelerated to 57.7 from 56.4 in the earlier month, revealed knowledge from S&P World. Indian items producers kicked off the yr to a sturdy begin, with new orders rising at the quickest tempo since July 2024.
The manufacturing sector kicked off the yr on a powerful notice, with the PMI rising to 57.7 from 56.4 in December, pushed by a surge in exports, marking the quickest development in almost 14 years.
Nonetheless, the providers sector noticed a slowdown, with the PMI dropping to 56.5, the lowest since November 2022, down from 59.3 in December. Regardless of the dip, development remained strong, with continued job creation and help from the manufacturing sector.
India’s providers sector started 2025 with a PMI of 56.5, the lowest since November 2022, in response to S&P World knowledge. Following December’s service PMI of 59.3, development momentum marked a considerable slowdown. In the meantime, enlargement remained traditionally robust, and job creation continued, supported by an uptick in manufacturing exercise.
(Supply: S&P World, HSBC PMI Report)
Index of Industrial Manufacturing (IIP)
India’s Index of Industrial Manufacturing (IIP) grew by 3.2% in December 2024, down from 5.2% in November. Sector-sensible, Mining expanded by 2.6%, Manufacturing by 3.0%, and Electrical energy noticed the highest development at 6.2%.
The Fast Estimates of IIP rose to 157.2, up from 152.3 in December 2023, with sector indices standing at 143.1 (Mining), 156.2 (Manufacturing), and 192.8 (Electrical energy).
The highest contributors to IIP development in December 2024 have been Major items, Intermediate items, and Infrastructure/ building items
(Supply: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation)
FII & DII
As FPI outflow will increase to Rs 77, 211 crores, DIIs enhance their investments, infusing almost Rs 86,591.80 crores in the markets in January 2025.
In January 2025, the Indian inventory market noticed its longest month-to-month decline in 23 years, with this backdrop the Nifty 50 closing at 23,508.40 and the BSE Sensex at 77,500.57 on thirty first January.
(Supply: NSDL, BSE & NSE)
UPI
UPI transactions reached 16,996.00 million in quantity and Rs 23,48,037.12 crore in worth in January 2025, with the participation of 647 banks driving the ecosystem. Compared, December noticed 16,730.01 million transactions value Rs 23,24,699.91 crore, facilitated by 641 banks.
(Supply: NPCI)
Commerce Merchandise
In December 2024, India recorded complete exports of USD 70.67 billion, reflecting a 0.92% development in comparison with December 2023 and a rise from November 2024’s USD 67.79 billion.
In January 2025, India’s complete exports is estimated to be USD 74.97 billion, increasing to about 9.72% Y-o-Y in development, whereas complete recorded imports was USD 77.64 billion, growing to about 12.98% Y-o-Y.
In December 2024, India recorded complete exports of USD 70.67 billion,
Complete imports stood at USD 77.44 billion, marking a 6.40% rise from the earlier yr however a big drop from November 2024’s USD 87.63 billion.
In complete the commerce deficit shrunk from – USD 19.84 billion in November 2024 to -6.78 in December 2024.
Service exports have been estimated at USD 32.66 billion, up from USD 31.63 billion in December 2023 however down from November 2024’s USD 35.67 billion. Service imports barely decreased to USD 17.50 billion, in comparison with USD 15.63 billion in December 2023 and USD 17.68 billion in November 2024.
Merchandise exports have been valued at USD 38.01 billion in December 2024, down from USD 38.39 billion in December 2023 however increased than November 2024’s USD 32.11 billion. Merchandise imports fell to USD 59.95 billion from November 2024’s USD 69.95 billion, although they exceeded December 2023’s USD 57.15 billion.
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