Jordan’s King Abdullah II is ready to fulfill with United States President Donald Trump in Washington, DC, amid the latter’s repeated insistence that the monarch settle for Palestinians he want to expel from Gaza so the US can take management of the enclave.
The thought got here up in Trump’s feedback – made alongside a smiling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu final week – that Palestinians must be “eliminated” from the devastated Gaza Strip. Trump has emphasised that, to his thoughts, the Palestinians wouldn’t return, making his concepts ethnic cleaning.
Jordan rejects the concept.
Trump’s feedback have been condemned not solely by Jordan but additionally Egypt, which Trump additionally mentioned ought to “take” Palestinians from Gaza, in addition to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
Nevertheless, Trump mentioned US monetary help for Jordan and Egypt would power their hand.
“In the event that they don’t agree, I’d conceivably withhold support,” Trump mentioned on Monday, the day earlier than assembly King Abdullah.
A pink line
US monetary backing for Jordan is necessary – the nation was the fourth-highest recipient of US international support in 2023, with $1.72bn. However accepting the uprooting of thousands and thousands of Palestinians from Gaza could be a political non-starter for Amman, in keeping with analysts.
“Accepting one other wave of Palestinians into the nation stays a pink line,” Dima Toukan, a non-resident scholar on the Center East Institute, instructed Al Jazeera. “The king won’t budge on this matter.”
King Abdullah, a longtime US ally, has been beneath pressure internationally and domestically for the reason that starting of Israel’s warfare on Gaza in October 2023.
Jordan’s place as a key regional ally to the US and a commerce accomplice with Israel has angered its overwhelmingly pro-Palestinian inhabitants, which additionally contains not less than 2 million Palestinian refugees and Jordanians of Palestinian origin.
Any acceptance of Trump’s concepts, which have been likened to the Nakba by which 750,000 Palestinians have been ethnically cleansed by Zionist gangs to declare the state of Israel in 1948, could be a recipe for home unrest and problem the monarchy’s legitimacy.
Protests towards Israel’s warfare on Gaza, which has killed greater than 61,700 Palestinians, have taken place in Amman for a lot of the final 16 months.
Whereas they’ve calmed for the reason that ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, Jordanians took to the streets once more on Friday to protest towards the concept of Trump displacing Palestinians from Gaza into Jordan.
“Jordanians have been clear with their messages throughout protests on Friday,” Toukan mentioned.
Anger can rapidly result in instability: An assault in September by a Jordanian killed three Israeli border guards.
“My sense is that the king is conveying a really pressing message that Trump’s disastrous ‘plan’ is successfully going to destroy Jordan,” Sean Yom, an affiliate professor of political science at Temple College, mentioned.
“The displacement/relocation concept broaches the existential concern of all Jordanians – throughout the board, from monarchy to society – that Israel will annex all of Palestine, and that resource-poor, socially-restive Jordan might be left choosing up the items.”
Help troubles
However Jordan has to weigh up different issues in relation to Trump’s feedback.
Even earlier than Israel’s warfare on Gaza, the monarchy was beneath pressure because of financial struggles that led to disenchantment amongst among the nation’s influential tribes.
Jordan is already getting a style of Trump’s potential to upend many years of monetary help after he introduced on the day of his inauguration that a lot of the US’s international support commitments could be frozen for 90 days.
Some Jordanians say they misplaced work or had their companies impacted by Trump’s choice. It’s also notable that whereas Egypt and Israel got exceptions on the international support freeze, Jordan’s place as a staunch regional ally didn’t defend it.
“Jordan is straight dependent upon US support and safety help,” Yom mentioned. “The dominion is weak to geopolitical blackmail.”
Ever since Jordan and Israel signed the 1994 Wadi Araba peace settlement, the Hashemite Kingdom has been a key ally of the US with help for it typically crossing administrations and occasion traces.
However Trump’s pressure could power Jordan and different regional allies to begin hedging their bets, analysts mentioned.
Jordan, Egypt and different Gulf states “are in all probability trying to Russia and China”, Geoffrey Hughes, writer of the guide Kinship, Islam and the Politics of Marriage in Jordan: Affection and Mercy, instructed Al Jazeera.
“Quite a bit will hinge on how a lot that scares the Trump administration and the way credible any risk of defection or hedging appears in mild of the indicators popping out of Moscow and Beijing.”
Troops as a stick
To proceed working as common, Jordan must discover sufficient funding from international powers to fill a billion-dollar hole. Analysts mentioned the prospect of the total quantity being coated was unlikely.
However Jordan could have another technique of leverage.
“The largest factor to observe is the stationing of US forces in Jordan,” Hughes mentioned.
There are about 3,000 US troops in Jordan, largely centered on countering ISIL (ISIS) in recent times, a part of a wider community of US troops ostensibly constructed as much as counter ISIL over the past decade, with different troops stationed in Syria and Iraq.
And but, with Trump in energy, even that leverage will not be as necessary because it as soon as appeared.
The US president has break up from his predecessors, who positioned significance on a US presence within the area, talking about pulling US troops from Syria and Iraq.
Trump reiterated the intention to tug US troops from Syria in late January, leaving some to marvel if a US presence in Jordan could be a precedence.
It may additionally alter the Jordan-Israel relationship, giving Israel an excuse to intervene straight with perceived “safety threats” inside Jordanian territory.
“Perhaps Trump doesn’t even need [US troops in Jordan] … additionally they complicate any Israeli aggression that could possibly be forthcoming,” mentioned Hughes.
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