The prospect of renewed nuclear weapon stockpiling and international instability are spurring some international locations to look extra carefully at nuclear protections — however Canada shouldn’t be amongst these, the defence minister and a number of consultants say.
Questions on nuclear proliferation and deterrence have elevated amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats in opposition to Greenland and NATO, in addition to the upcoming expiry this week of the final remaining nuclear arms management treaty between the U.S. and Russia.
Retired normal Wayne Eyre, the previous chief of the defence employees, instructed an occasion in Ottawa on Monday that Canada shouldn’t altogether rule out buying its personal nuclear weapons, in response to reviews from the Globe and Mail and La Presse.
Requested about these feedback whereas heading into a cupboard assembly Tuesday, Defence Minister David McGuinty mentioned Canada has “completely no intention” of doing so.
“Canada is a signatory to worldwide treaties which preclude us, primary, and Canada has been a non-nuclear-proliferation state for a very long time,” McGuinty instructed reporters.
“We’re going to proceed to construct typical weapons. We’re going to proceed to re-arm. We’re going to proceed to reinvest. We’re going to proceed to rebuild our Canadian Armed Forces and we’re doing that.”
He mentioned that work, with a specific concentrate on Arctic safety, will “completely” guarantee Canada’s army can function independently from the U.S. even with out its personal nuclear deterrent.
The reviews quoted Eyre as saying that Canada might by no means have true strategic independence with out nuclear weapons, however including that’s not one thing the nation should pursue in the intervening time.
The dialogue on the Rideau Membership in Ottawa the place Eyre made the feedback, which centered on Canadian sovereignty and the bounds of the nation’s army autonomy, seem to not have been publicly broadcast.
Different consultants warning that nuclear proliferation typically, and the thought of a Canadian nuclear arsenal particularly, should not be pursued additional.
“Nuclear weapons usually are not the way in which to take care of rising uncertainty and hazard around the globe,” mentioned John Erath, senior coverage director on the Heart for Arms Management and Non-Proliferation in Washington, D.C.
“It’s not a good suggestion … they usually contribute to the difficulty far more readily than they will resolve it.”
Alexander Lanoszka, an affiliate professor of political science on the College of Waterloo who research worldwide safety, mentioned the difficulty just isn’t whether or not Canada has the scientific or useful resource functionality to develop a nuclear weapon, however somewhat, “What are the strategic functions, and what can be the strategic prices related to doing so?”
“Frankly, regardless that there may be a variety of concern about Russian adventurism, Chinese language assertiveness, and no matter the US is doing today, the Canadian authorities has very, little or no purpose to go about such a expensive endeavour as nuclear proliferation itself,” he mentioned.
European nations have lengthy relied closely on the US, together with its massive nuclear arsenal, for his or her defence and to discourage attainable land grabs from Russia.
Canada is no totally different, with the added worth of being a geographic neighbour to the world’s second-largest nuclear warhead stockpile, simply barely behind Russia.
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Nevertheless, Trump has demanded that NATO allies step up their army spending and tackle extra of the collective defence burden — even threatening to not come to assistance from those who don’t spend sufficient.
Trump’s current push to accumulate Greenland from Denmark, which he has since backed down from, has solely additional rattled the NATO alliance.
France and the UK, the one two European nations with nuclear weapons, signed a declaration final summer time for nearer nuclear co-operation.
That got here simply months after French President Emmanuel Macron mentioned he was opening a “strategic debate” over making a shared European nuclear umbrella with a view to scale back reliance on U.S. nuclear property throughout the continent.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz mentioned final week that these talks had begun and that Germany was concerned. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson made related feedback final month.
Like Sweden and Germany, Canada is a non-nuclear state and a signatory to the worldwide treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. The settlement bars signatories with out nuclear arms from buying or producing them.
Generally often called the NPT, the treaty serves as the inspiration for the worldwide disarmament motion. Canada has strongly supported the treaty because it got here into pressure in 1970.
Nevertheless, the treaty doesn’t explicitly forbid the 5 nuclear energy signatories — the U.S., Russia, China, France and Germany — from buying extra weapons. It solely urges them to barter an eventual international disarmament, with no set timeline to take action.
Erath famous the treaty has been profitable total, lowering the worldwide nuclear stockpile from 70,000 on the finish of the Chilly Conflict to round 12,000 at present, a drop of over 80 per cent.
“The final 20 per cent are proving very tough to get at,” he mentioned — and now some international locations are pushing to construct extra.
U.S. intelligence says China is quickly increasing its nuclear arsenal and is on observe to surpass 1,000 by 2030.
Trump, whereas asserting the U.S. would begin testing its nuclear weapons for the primary time in many years, mentioned in October 2025 that China’s nuclear program might be “even” with America’s inside 5 years.
Russia has additionally moved to develop and modernize its provides and repeatedly threatened to make use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, in addition to in opposition to Kyiv’s western allies.
The New START treaty, a key anti-proliferation pact between the U.S. and Russia, is ready to run out on Thursday, sparking fears of a looming international arms race.
Trump indicated in an interview with the New York Occasions final month that he’ll let the treaty expire. He has not formally responded to a Russian proposal to maintain observing the treaty’s missile and warhead limits for yet another yr to permit time to work out what to do after the pact expires.
Non-signatories to the NPT, like India, Pakistan, North Korea, Iran and Israel, are additionally believed to be increasing their numerous nuclear capabilities.
Why buying nuclear weapons would not be simple
Consultants like Lanoszka and Erath mentioned it will be unwise politically and diplomatically for Canada to attempt to depart the NPT and begin pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
“I believe any such assertion might be met with a bewildered response” by Canadians and the world at massive, Lanoszka mentioned.
Additionally, he added, “The US can be very disinclined to assist any form of impartial initiative to accumulate nuclear weapons” attributable to its need to “management escalation dangers” — notably in its personal hemisphere.
That may make it terribly tough for Canada to obtain the gear essential to ship a nuclear weapon, which might doubtless have to come back from U.S. defence suppliers, he mentioned.
Erath identified that nuclear threats and deterrence “are solely efficient in case you are ready to hold them out,” which additionally helps clarify why nuclear fears are rising globally.
“The considered President Putin being prepared to hold out a few of the threats he’s made is one that’s fairly horrifying,” he mentioned.
Nevertheless, Erath argued that’s exactly why Canada should proceed to co-function with the U.S. on each collective deterrence and eventual disarmament.
“It’s a wake-up name, and there should be some dialogue on this,” he mentioned. “If Canada feels that its safety just isn’t adequately supplied for, as an alliance accomplice, it has the duty to make these issues identified” to each the U.S. and NATO.
“I’m personally an optimist, so I believe we’ll get again to … contemplating actually significant discount in nuclear weapons. You don’t want a variety of nuclear weapons to discourage a possible adversary. It solely takes one.”
— with information from The Canadian Press, The Related Press and Reuters
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