Live Updates: Iran’s retaliatory strikes and regional tensions surge post-Khamenei

Iran awoke Sunday to a once-in-a-generation shock: state media confirmed Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint U.S.–Israel strike.

For markets, the important thing query is what comes subsequent.

Normal Chartered’s International Head of Analysis, Eric Robertsen, mentioned in a observe that traders had already been underpricing geopolitical threat. The U.S. greenback is simply modestly weaker year-to-date, however the dispersion beneath the floor is telling: commodity-linked currencies are outperforming, suggesting markets are paying for publicity to scarce assets and terms-of-trade winners.

Ben Emons of FedWatch Advisors provides a high-volatility geopolitical lens. Management strikes in Tehran elevate regime-change tail dangers and go away an unsure endgame. Markets may swing between risk-on reduction — if regime collapse removes the specter of oil blockades or nuclear escalation — and risk-off persistence if battle drags on and provide disruptions intensify.

The quick stress level could also be power. A sustained surge in crude would ripple shortly by way of inflation expectations and hit Asia’s oil-importing economies hardest, analysts say.

As buying and selling resumes, traders might be watching oil costs and the U.S. greenback versus Asian currencies for the primary actual sign of how significantly this shock is being priced in.

— Spriha Srivastava

Markets within the Center East have been principally closed Sunday because of regional tensions.

Shares in Muscat opened decrease as traders withdrew funds, indicating market concern that the weekend’s occasions would flip right into a protracted battle after Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran, and the Islamic Republic retaliated throughout Arab and Gulf cities.

Muscat’s foremost index, the .MSX30 tumbled greater than 3% in Sunday commerce. The nation was not focused by the Islamic Republic because it performed a key mediation position in talks between the U.S. and Iran in current weeks. Oman’s international minister took to X to precise his “dismay” on the joint strikes on Iran by the U.S. and Israel, saying “energetic and critical negotiations have but once more been undermined.”

Kuwait’s inventory alternate applied a buying and selling suspension till additional discover. Kuwait was hit by Iranian missiles, as was Amman, Doha and Riyadh, which shuttered markets on Sunday, that are usually open for commerce, because of regional instability.

The United Arab Emirates has been subjected to a second day of explosions, heard by CNBC’s crew on the bottom within the nation. Dubai and Abu Dhabi’s exchanges open for commerce Monday morning, they closed decrease in Friday’s commerce.

Israel’s Tel Aviv inventory alternate opens Monday morning for buying and selling as properly, the alternate shifted in January to Monday-Friday buying and selling consistent with international markets.

— Emma Graham

Iran’s prime safety official Ali Larijani mentioned the USA and Israel are searching for to “plunder and disintegrate” the nation, Reuters reported citing state tv, as Tehran strikes to shore up management following the killing of Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Larijani mentioned a brief management council can be established on Sunday and warned that any “secessionist teams” making an attempt to take motion would face a harsh response.

—Lee Ying Shan

The United Arab Emirates has ordered colleges and universities nationwide to modify to distant studying from Monday to Wednesday as Iran launches assaults on Arab states with U.S. property.

In a submit on X Sunday, the UAE’s Ministry of Schooling and the Ministry of Increased Schooling and Scientific Analysis mentioned that college students, academic and administrative workers in all public and personal colleges nationwide will change to “distance studying” for the upcoming three days.

— Anniek Bao

U.S. President Donald Trump warned Sunday that Washington would reply with unprecedented pressure if Iran retaliates in opposition to current U.S. strikes.

In a submit on Fact Social, Trump wrote: “Iran simply said that they’re going to hit very arduous right now, more durable than they’ve ever been hit earlier than,” including, “THEY BETTER NOT DO THAT, HOWEVER, BECAUSE IF THEY DO, WE WILL HIT THEM WITH A FORCE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE!”

— Lee Ying Shan

A number of loud explosions have been heard within the Qatari capital Doha for a second day on Sunday, in keeping with media stories.

Reuters reported blasts have been heard within the Dubai space in addition to Doha. In a video posted by Doha Information on Sunday, thick smoke was seen billowing close to Barwa in Doha after Iran launched missiles in the direction of Qatar that hosts U.S. navy bases.

— Anniek Bao

The dying of Iran’s Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei units in movement a proper succession course of that would have vital implications for the nation’s political stability, sanctions outlook and already strained financial system.

Nevertheless, analysts warned that elimination of the supreme chief doesn’t equal transformation.

“Taking out Iranian Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei shouldn’t be the identical as regime change. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is the regime,” the Council on Overseas Relations famous following his passing, limiting the prospects for quick political or financial transformation. 

Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, echoed an identical views: “The Iranian financial system is quickly to be a parking zone except the subsequent Supreme Chief is extra amenable to negotiating with the U.S.”

Learn the complete story right here.

— Lee Ying Shan

Airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi have been broken in a single day as Iranian retaliatory assaults unfold throughout the Gulf states.

“An incident” at Dubai Worldwide Airport (DXB) left 4 workers injured, in keeping with a social media submit by the emirate’s media workplace.

Most airport terminals had been cleared of passengers, the authority mentioned, including that additional updates might be supplied as they turn into obtainable.

Authorities in Abu Dhabi additionally reported an interception of a drone that focused the Zayed Worldwide airport, killing an Asian nationwide and leaving seven injured.

Iran has responded to the U.S.-Israel strikes by focusing on Israel and a number of Gulf states, together with UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan that host U.S. property.

An intercepted Iranian drone reportedly triggered a minor hearth on the Burj Al Arab’s outer facade.

One of many berths at Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port additionally caught hearth due to particles ensuing from an aerial interception, in keeping with native media stories, citing Dubai authorities.

— Anniek Bao

Iran skilled a near-total web shutdown beginning round 2 a.m. ET Saturday, in keeping with unbiased web monitoring group NetBlocks.

The group, which makes use of community measurement and net site visitors analytics to detect government-imposed outages, reported that nationwide connectivity fell to simply 4% of regular ranges.

Posting on X, NetBlocks mentioned the disruption coincided with U.S. and Israeli navy operations and resembled restrictions imposed throughout final yr’s battle with Israel.

—Lee Ying Shan

Commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps died within the U.S.-Israeli assault in opposition to Tehran on Saturday, the nation’s official information company reported. Ali Shamkhani, consultant of the Supreme Chief within the Supreme Protection Council, was additionally killed.

“We’re listening to that lots of their IRGC, Army, and different Safety and Police Forces, not wish to combat, and are on the lookout for Immunity from us,” U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned within the aftermath of Iranian Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s dying.

— Vinay Dwivedi