Breaking Down the Bracket: Regional Picks and Final Four Predictions | Deadspin.com

Selecting chalk in the NCAA Event is, mockingly, a daring prediction.

Simply as soon as in the match’s trendy period has the Final Four featured all 4 No. 1 seeds — in 2008. This yr’s crop simply occurs to be the highest-rated quartet since the daybreak of KenPom.com. Duke, Florida, Houston and Auburn all fee larger than plus-35, one thing by no means earlier than seen since the metrics web site started monitoring knowledge in 1997.

After I ran this train again in late January, I settled on Duke, Houston, Auburn and Michigan State as a very good Final Four wager. However now now we have areas and brackets laid out earlier than us. Tempting as it’s to interchange the Spartans with Florida and name it a day, let’s motive these out one area at a time.

South Area

Auburn misplaced three of its final 4, convincing some of us to avoid the Tigers. These losses got here in opposition to a few of the finest groups the SEC has to supply, so let’s not overreact. And after getting previous a woefully underseeded No. 8 Louisville, the Tigers would get pleasure from an opportunity to sink their enamel right into a revenge sport in opposition to No. 4 Texas A&M, which beat them two weeks in the past.

However the No. 2 seed right here is Michigan State, which has a fairly straightforward highway to the Elite Eight (since No. 3 Iowa State will likely be down a key starter in Keshon Gilbert). That is Tom Izzo’s finest workforce since earlier than the pandemic, and the Spartans are higher than Auburn in two key areas: rebounding and attending to the line. I’ve this unshakable feeling we’re getting one final Izzo run to the Final Four.

Choose: No. 2 Michigan State

East Area

I stated this Monday: Duke has the best path of the No. 1 seeds, a lot in order that it may make the Candy 16 with Cooper Flagg in avenue garments, resting his sprained ankle. As soon as Duke’s there, I’m not involved a few 12-loss Arizona in the No. 4 spot, although a really well-rounded Oregon may give the Blue Devils hassle as the No. 5 seed.

In the meantime, your different finest candidates are No. 2 Alabama, whose protection I don’t belief, and No. 3 Wisconsin. Duke-Alabama and Duke-Wisconsin may make for some actually enjoyable Elite Eight matchups, however neither of those groups is prepared for the model of grind-it-out protection the Blue Devils play.

Choose: No. 1 Duke

Midwest Area

What a enjoyable area. No. 1 Houston and No. 2 Tennessee have been knocking on the door for years now. The No. 3 seed is Kentucky, in Mark Pope’s first season as coach, and Purdue, Clemson and Illinois have all had moments this season the place they’ve appeared elite.

Between their terrific defenses and the sluggish tempos they every wish to play, a Houston-Tennessee Elite Eight matchup seems like first one to 50 wins. The Cougars are additionally considered one of the finest 3-point capturing groups on the market — however the Vols have the No. 1 perimeter protection in Division I. In the event that they chase the Cougars off the arc, I like the dimension of Felix Okpara and firm to cease a Houston workforce that’s under common on 2-pointers.

Choose: No. 2 Tennessee

West Area

Working in opposition to top-seeded Florida is that the West is the most tough area, residence to 5 of the prime 15 KenPom groups. The Gators may face two-time defending champion UConn in the spherical of 32, a red-hot Maryland workforce in the Candy 16, and St. John’s, Texas Tech, Missouri and even Kansas in the Elite Eight. Even conceding the undeniable fact that UConn and Kansas aren’t critical title contenders, it is a meat grinder.

But I preserve coming again to the Gators’ profile and can’t discover a matchup that I don’t like for them. They’re a wildly environment friendly offense that can make 3-pointers whereas stopping the three at the different finish. They defend the ball and rank eighth in offensive rebounding proportion, so that they’ll management possession. That is my different No. 1 seed choice for San Antonio.

Choose: No. 1 Florida