First Four Wednesday Betting Picks for Mount St. Mary’s vs. American and Xavier vs. Texas | Deadspin.com

The First Four continues Wednesday with a pair of intriguing video games, one that includes Mount St. Mary’s taking over American College and the opposite Xavier vs. Texas. There was some line motion for each video games since sportsbooks posted the opening odds.

However that doesn’t imply it’s best to keep away from them. Figuring out how the general public is betting may help you resolve what you need to do. To that finish, let’s examine these video games out (odds by way of DraftKings).

First Four: Mount St. Mary’s (+120) vs. American College (-2.5)

The third recreation of this yr’s NCAA Division I Males’s Basketball Championship will get underway at the moment at 6:40 p.m. Jap, with the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (22-12) going through off towards the American College Eagles (22-12). To the winner go the spoils — a date with Duke within the first spherical.

The Mountaineers earned their spot within the First Four due to a stifling protection that held their match opponents to not more than 58 factors (they allowed 69.8 factors per recreation through the common season). Nevertheless, the margin of victory in these video games was solely 4, two and 14 factors.

Protection led the way in which for the Eagles as properly. Their convention opponents have been held to 69, 62 and 52 factors — numbers considerably according to their common season common of 67.3 factors allowed per recreation. They have been fairly constant on offense, too, scoring 71, 72 and 74 factors.

Our decide: American -2.5 (opened at -1.5)

Had I caught this recreation when the road opened, I’d be all around the underneath. However it opened at 133.5 for this defensive battle, and it’s now 129.5. It’s solely 4 factors, however that’s sufficient for doubt to creep into my thoughts.

As for my decide, Mount St. Mary’s protection was great throughout its convention tourney run, however it appeared nothing like that through the common season. American U’s protection, nevertheless, performed simply in addition to it had all yr throughout its match.

Consequently, I belief the Eagles to lock down the Mountaineers on this recreation and cowl the unfold.

First Four: Xavier (-3.5) vs. Texas (+140)

The First Four concludes with the Xavier Musketeers (22-11) taking over the Texas Longhorns (19-15). Recreation time is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. Jap with protection on truTV. The winner will formally turn into the No. 11 seed within the Midwest Area and face Illinois on Friday, March 21.

Xavier misplaced its final recreation, the Large East quarterfinal, to Marquette 89-87, however ended the common season on a seven-game successful streak. Texas comes into the match with an inconsistent end, dropping 4 of its final 5 within the common season.

Then the Longhorns beat Vanderbilt and Texas A&M within the SEC Event earlier than dropping to Tennessee within the semifinals, 83-72. Nevertheless, earlier than judging Texas too harshly, its schedule must be considered.

Texas went 5-8 towards top-25 groups and 10-15 towards Quad 1 and Quad 2 groups. Xavier was extra constant however went 2-5 towards top-25 groups and Sept. 11 towards Quad 1 and Quad 2 groups.

Our decide: Texas ML

I used to be comfy taking the Texas moneyline when it opened at -102, however now that you’ll find it at +140, this guess completely has worth. Xavier could look higher on paper, however Texas would most likely have been even higher had it performed the same schedule.

If taking the Longhorns to win outright makes you nervous, the unfold has gone from the place it opened at +1 to +3.5.