EDMONTON — It is Issues We (Think We) Know Collection III, Quantity III. Let’s dive proper in.
The Edmonton Oilers have 18 video games left to make up 5 factors on Pacific Division-leading Vegas, whereas attempting to remain forward of third-place Los Angeles, which has crept to inside a degree of the Oilers with a sport in hand. The Oilers have two video games left versus the Kings — one house, one away — and one sport left at Vegas on Apr. 1.
Issues we (think we) know
A few weeks in the past, when profitable the Pacific meant enjoying the wild-card Colorado Avalanche in Spherical 1, standard knowledge would have most popular second place within the Pacific and a fourth consecutive date with the Los Angeles Kings, a group the Oilers have overwhelmed with growing ease during the last three Spherical 1s — in seven, then six, then 5 video games.
In the present day, it seems much more probably that the winner of the Pacific will get the Minnesota Wild, a group that has muddled by means of the stretch run round .500, however one that’s anticipating (allegedly) to get injured stars Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin again earlier than the playoffs start.
So, which is a extra formidable opponent for Edmonton? Nicely, during the last six seasons, listed here are some numbers:
• Edmonton is 4-11 (.267) versus the Wild, and 2-6 (.250) at St. Paul, Minn.
• Edmonton is 12-5-1 (.694) versus the Kings, and 5-3-1 (.611) in Los Angeles.
• Within the playoffs, the Oilers are 12-6 (.667) over the previous three springs v. the Kings, and 6-2 (.750) at L.A.
Sure, the Kings are sure to beat Edmonton one in every of these years, and maybe the matchup is getting boring. However for no matter purpose, the Wild have owned Edmonton over the previous lengthy whereas, and with the pedigree of participant the Wild have returning for playoffs, I think the Oilers must be capturing for second place within the Pacific and house ice towards the Kings in Spherical 1.
The Oilers have too many gamers whose video games have dipped since final season. Exterior of Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Corey Perry, Brett Kulak … identify another person who’s having a greater season this 12 months than final?
Jason Gregor reported this on Oilersnation.com this week, evaluating the present season to profession averages: Solely three Edmonton forwards are having an above-average 12 months scoring targets at 5 on 5, and the 39-year-old Perry is on the prime of that checklist.
Connor McDavid is on tempo for the worst targets/60 (0.77), second worst assists/60 (1.48) and worst factors/60 (2.25) of his profession.
Evan Bouchard is on tempo for the worst assists/60 (0.75) and factors/60 (1.20) of his profession.
Stuart Skinner is on tempo for his worst targets towards common (2.88) and save proportion (.896) over his profession as a No. 1.
That’s your greatest ahead, your greatest defenceman and your greatest goalie. Are you able to win with these developments?
Issues we (think we) know
Some individuals think the Oilers have been saving one thing for his or her ultimate 20 video games and playoffs. That they realized after final season they wanted to have extra left in June, in order that they’ve consciously operated at someplace under 100 per cent this season in hopes of peaking when it counts.
Hey, it’s a concept — and a hopeful one at that. It might even merely be sub-conscious.
So, is there something right here? Nicely, Half 1 of the idea holds true (see above). However are you able to flip the swap and get to Half 2?
It begins on the prime, with McDavid, Bouchard and Skinner. Can they get their sport to a Leon Draisaitl-level of uptick?
McDavid has been higher prior to now three video games, and so has Skinner, who has been good by means of a 2-1 stretch — the loss coming in Buffalo the place Edmonton shooters hit 5 posts and take accountability for less than scoring twice in a sport they dominated for lengthy stretches.
Bouchard will at all times make you higher offensively, scoring towards Buffalo. However the Sabres scored two targets that Bouchard was in place to forestall, however didn’t. If it’s honest to say that Edmonton can’t win if McDavid isn’t a pacesetter offensively, then we’re saying you can’t win when your prime minutes participant is a defensive legal responsibility. He’ll should shore up his sport with out the puck.
Past these three, there’s a large group of gamers whose time has come to lift their sport, if the “saving it for playoffs” concept goes to carry any water. It begins with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (22 even power factors enjoying with McDavid), strikes to Viktor Arvidsson (18 ESP enjoying with Draisaitl) and lands on third-line wingers Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown (10 mixed targets in 127 man video games).
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