As a result of US-Israel’s joint assault towards Iran and its retaliation, sugar exports to India’s fundamental market within the Gulf may be considerably low and help enhance home availability.
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REUTERS/AMIT DAVE
If the notional inventory of sugar stored by mills and as knowledgeable to the federal government is appropriate, there may be bother for India to manage provides this yr. It’s because manufacturing is projected to drop from preliminary estimates, leaving little amount to satisfy demand for the primary two months of subsequent season. Nevertheless, as a result of US-Israel’s joint assault towards Iran and its retaliation, sugar exports to India’s fundamental market within the Gulf may be considerably low and help enhance home availability.
The federal government had allowed 2 million tonnes (mt) of sugar for export in two tranches through the present season (October 2025-September 2026). Nevertheless, trade specialists stated {that a} most of 0.5 mt could possibly be shipped and helped the nation to save lots of 1.5 mt from going out when home manufacturing state of affairs isn’t so supportive.
Sugar mills have knowledgeable the federal government that the whole inventory accessible with them as on February 28 could possibly be 12.05 million tonnes (mt). However, home sugar manufacturing in 2025-26 season has reached 24.63 mt as of February 28, from 22.01 mt a yr in the past, based on information compiled by the Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd (NFCSF), the trade physique of cooperatives.
Little carryforward
For the reason that Indian Sugar & Bio-energy Producers Affiliation (ISMA), the trade physique of personal sector sugar producers, has pegged the nation’s internet sugar manufacturing at 29.29 mt for this yr, there could possibly be 4.66 mt extra output (after excluding diversion in the direction of ethanol) by September 30.
This extra likely manufacturing together with present inventory may guarantee an availability of 16.71 mt throughout March to September. In comparison this with 16.1 mt of sugar allotted throughout March-September final yr, there may be little or no quantity of surplus accessible as carry ahead.
“The notional inventory may not be appropriate and appears on the decrease facet contemplating the home allocation of 11.05 mt and manufacturing of 24.63 mt in October-February, and carry over (from earlier yr) of 4.7 mt,” stated trade veteran G Okay Sood. Nonetheless, the sugar state of affairs could be very tight even when there isn’t a requirement of import.
Meals Ministry indicators
Nevertheless, the primary subject will be whether or not internet manufacturing will stay as per estimated 29.3 mt or decrease and if decrease, how a lot, Sood stated, including it could possibly be round 28 mt.
The federal government has been allocating much less sugar this yr – 13.3 mt (October-March 2025-26) towards 13.75 mt year-ago, down by 3 per cent. For March additionally, the home gross sales quota has been fastened at 2.25 mt towards 2.3 mt a yr in the past.
In line with Meals Ministry information, sugar inventory with mills in Maharashtra was estimated to be at 4.93 mt, in Uttar Pradesh at 3.48 mt and in Karnataka at 2.09 mt on February 28.
In the meantime, NFCSF information present that Maharashtra’s sugar output reached at 9.52 mt in October-February of present season, which is 27 per cent greater from 7.49 mt a yr in the past, Uttar Pradesh 7.41 mt from 7.24 mt (up by 2 per cent) and Karnataka 4.41 mt from 3.83 mt (up 15 per cent).
It additionally reveals that 248 sugar mills have closed crushing operation, whereas within the corresponding interval year-ago, their quantity was 186, which additionally signifies decrease chance of elevated manufacturing to any extent further.
Printed on March 2, 2026
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