Aman Chowhan stated monsoon considerations should not a significant threat for earnings at this stage, however crude oil stays the dominant macro variable. He famous that even in a situation the place geopolitical tensions ease, oil costs may stay elevated, holding stress on company earnings. “Monsoon is just not a giant fear. A weak monsoon might have some influence. The larger problem is crude oil. Even when there’s a cope with Iran, oil can keep round 80. That’s the actual threat.” He added that the influence of upper oil costs is prone to present up extra clearly in upcoming quarters. “March quarter was tremendous as a result of stock. June will present the influence. We see a 100–200 bps hit from greater oil costs.”
On the earnings outlook for FY27, Chowhan stated visibility stays restricted and corporations themselves are nonetheless assessing the influence. “Earnings revision is but to occur. Corporations themselves are uncertain of the influence. We’ll know extra in a number of weeks.” He added that the important thing stress level is prone to be margins relatively than demand. “The chance is extra on margins than topline. Demand is holding up properly.”
On portfolio positioning, he stated allocation has shifted towards defensive and structural themes, particularly in a excessive crude oil setting. “We’re shopping for renewables—photo voltaic, wind, ethanol. That could be a key theme.” He additionally highlighted elevated publicity to pharma and home manufacturing as most well-liked areas for incremental funding.
On the IT sector, Chowhan remained cautious regardless of current corrections, citing structural considerations round synthetic intelligence and valuations. “We exited IT six months in the past. No hurry to re-enter. Upside is restricted.” He stated AI-led effectivity enhancements may problem India’s conventional low-cost benefit, holding valuation multiples beneath stress. “AI will enhance effectivity, however it pressures India’s low-cost mannequin. Valuations might keep beneath stress.”
On consumption, he maintained a constructive view on demand however flagged near-term margin stress as a result of rising enter prices, notably metals. “Demand is robust. We like discretionary and durables.” Nevertheless, he added that greater metallic costs may weigh on profitability within the brief time period.
On different sectors, he stated capital market-linked companies comparable to wealth and broking stay enticing as a result of sturdy enterprise fashions, whereas infrastructure has turned impartial as a result of fiscal pressures arising from greater oil costs. “Infra is impartial as a result of fiscal stress from greater oil.”In financials, Chowhan stated fundamentals stay wholesome however overseas institutional investor (FII) promoting continues to weigh on sentiment. “Banking is nice, however FII promoting is a headwind.” Inside the house, he continues to want NBFCs and private banks over PSU banks.
He additionally highlighted FCNR inflows as a supportive issue for the forex, noting that enticing yields may draw significant overseas inflows. “FCNR inflows are constructive for the rupee. Returns might be enticing, even 12–15% with leverage.”
On tactical alternatives, Chowhan pointed to chemical compounds, defence, and choose engineering shares as areas of curiosity, supported by forex advantages and relative valuation consolation.
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