The timing of the positions coincided with a number of announcements that triggered sharp oil worth actions, together with delays in navy motion, ceasefire talks, and discussions across the Strait of Hormuz. The identities of the merchants stay unknown, and regulatory companies haven’t formally commented.
A collection of well-timed market bets on falling oil costs totalling as a lot as $7 billion throughout March and April unfold throughout a number of exchanges and kinds of gasoline and derivatives simply earlier than main Iranian coverage announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump, based on merchants, market consultants and Reuters evaluation of change information.
The dimensions exceeds beforehand reported bets amounting to $2.6 billion, which have already prompted the U.S. administration to warn workers towards utilizing nonpublic data for monetary profit. The U.S. Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC) is investigating, an individual conversant in the matter instructed Reuters in April, though the CFTC has but to formally verify a probe is underway.
Exchanges and devices underneath scrutiny
Reuters couldn’t set up who positioned the bets and whether or not they originated within the U.S. or elsewhere. They included quick positions, or bets that costs would fall, for derivatives together with ICE, CME crude, diesel and gasoline futures.
The bets occurred on two main exchanges that host benchmark world oil and gasoline futures commerce: the Intercontinental Alternate (ICE) and Chicago Mercantile Alternate (CME). Each exchanges declined to remark. The CME is investigating the trades, a supply conversant in the matter instructed Reuters.
Suspicious timing ahead of Trump coverage announcements
Merchants first noticed uncommon trades on March 23. The trades have been executed minutes earlier than Trump introduced a delay to threatened assaults on Iranian energy infrastructure, triggering an oil worth fall.
The identical sample repeated on April 7, earlier than Trump introduced a ceasefire with Iran that triggered a fall of as a lot as 15% in benchmark ICE Brent futures. It occurred once more on April 17, when Iranian officers and Trump spoke about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, after which once more on April 21, when Trump prolonged the ceasefire.
Reuters and different media reported these trades on essentially the most actively traded front-month contracts for the 2 world crude benchmarks, Brent and West Texas Intermediate. The worth of these bets on these 4 days in March and April stood at round $2.6 billion, based on Reuters preliminary calculations.
Regulatory probes and unanswered questions
The U.S. Justice Division, CFTC and White Home didn’t instantly reply to requests for remark.
Revealed on Could 7, 2026
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