“Don’t rely upon geopolitical offers to drive markets”
Responding to a query on whether or not the Iran–US deal might act as a catalyst for world and Indian markets, Mehra stated:
“I don’t assume we must always solely rely upon the deal. However sure, if it occurs, it takes away an enormous overhang total on all markets. And I don’t assume that’s what goes to drive the Indian markets up. In March, once I had come in your channel, I had stated that the market seems on all our indicators as whether it is within the backside vary. I can not let you know whether or not it’s going to begin shifting up in two weeks or two months, however the indicators are all constructive. Even now, if you happen to see, it’s a very totally different market from what it was in 2025.”
She identified that market breadth has improved considerably in contrast to final 12 months.
“In 2025, all of the Indian indices have been up, however the median inventory was down, and 40% of shares have been down greater than 10%. However halfway by the 12 months, the outperforming shares have been solely about 15%. The norm is round 40%. Now we even have a majority of shares outperforming the indices. So it’s utterly flipped, which is nice information total for markets, and that’s the reason, as I stated in March additionally, don’t be 100% in fairness, however no matter is your fairness allocation, stay invested. So that is still my recommendation.”
“Geopolitical dangers are usually not one thing you must react to”
On whether or not buyers ought to improve fairness allocation given easing world tensions, Mehra cautioned towards reacting to geopolitical developments.“The geopolitical danger per se shouldn’t be one thing you must react to, and I’m not saying this now. There may be an early March video of mine which is pinned on my Twitter feed which says precisely that: don’t overreact to geopolitics. That is what 125 years of information exhibits, together with the 2 world wars, the 2 Gulf wars, the US bombing Libya, 9/11, all of that. The market shrugged it off even when conflicts continued, as has occurred with Russia–Ukraine.”
She added that whereas crude oil actions matter for India, one ought to keep away from constructing funding selections round unsure geopolitical outcomes.
“In fact, in India there’s a direct affect due to crude, as a result of that impacts earnings. So you’ve gotten to take that into consideration. However I’m not betting on geopolitical decision so far as Indian or world markets are involved.”
“The damaging consensus is emotional behaviour”
Discussing investor behaviour, Mehra highlighted how sentiment-driven selections typically lead to poor timing.
“Should you take a look at the markets within the final couple of months, SIP numbers have turned unfavourable. The variety of accounts has additionally turned unfavourable. Indian buyers have been very jittery. Should you plot long-term knowledge, mutual fund inflows peak round market peaks and backside out round market bottoms. People act out of feelings, which mislead you utterly.”
She confused the significance of staying invested during times of panic.
“When you find yourself panicking is whenever you want to stay out there. That’s the superpower: don’t get out when your thoughts is screaming get out.”
Mehra additionally identified the shift in sentiment round India.
“A year-and-a-half in the past, each fund supervisor was promoting the India development story. Now, abruptly, the narrative has flipped and persons are solely speaking about dangers. Sentiment is all the time a contra indicator. When sentiment is extraordinarily unfavourable, future returns have a tendency to be above regular. So probability-wise, we’re a greater 12 months forward.”
“US shouldn’t be the globe: diversification is vital”
On portfolio technique, Mehra reiterated her long-standing view that diversification throughout geographies and belongings stays essential.
“You must all the time have a diversified portfolio. However the US shouldn’t be the globe. Individuals assume shopping for a US index or a couple of well-known shares is sufficient, however that’s not adequate diversification. It’s higher than being in a single market, however not a complete lot higher.”
She defined how world positioning has already shifted throughout areas.
“We now have been underweight the US for nearly a year-and-a-half. We went chubby Europe and China and added markets like Malaysia and Mexico, that are beneath the radar for many buyers.”
Warning towards focus in a handful of world shares, she added:
“Individuals assume shopping for the so-called Magnificent Seven will save them. That labored for a few years, however in 2025 the management narrowed and now a number of of these shares are underperforming. The baton has already handed, however buyers are nonetheless chasing yesterday’s winners.”
“No straightforward solutions in world investing”
Mehra additionally cautioned towards over-simplified world funding merchandise and techniques.
“There aren’t any straightforward solutions. I’m sceptical about schemes being launched with out experience in world markets. Many have underperformed as a result of they invested in yesterday’s shares as an alternative of monitoring what is occurring right now and anticipating what comes subsequent. Should you go world, it have to be with actual experience.”
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