‘Blue dot fever’? What’s really behind a tricky summer dynamic for live music

This summer, mega artist Harry Kinds will take the stage at Madison Sq. Backyard in New York Metropolis for an unique 30-show residency – his solely deliberate cease within the nation and a present that is garnered intense consideration since its announcement.

Regardless of her finest efforts, Shira Elfassy will not be there.

“His tickets had been absurd,” Elfassy, 29, advised CNBC. “It felt like an insult entering into and seeing, like, not solely can I not get in, not solely are there no tickets left, however even then, essentially the most primary value level is $500 for a nose-bleed seat — and that is changing into commonplace.”

As a substitute, Elfassy stated she obtained tickets to see different artists live, like Florence + the Machine and Olivia Rodrigo, at far lower cost factors. She stated feeling “priced out” of some concert events is now a widespread incidence.

“It is simply a bizarre dynamic now. … At this level, if I’ve to make the choice between making extra summer plans or hanging out with my mates — and even simply [to] pay hire — or I can go to this live performance, it is a no-brainer,” she stated. “Nevertheless it did not was that method.”

Elfassy represents a rising cohort of shoppers who aren’t keen to maintain up with the rising costs for live music, creating a Ok-shaped demand curve the place higher-income shoppers are spending extra — and protecting costs inflated — whereas lower-income shoppers are pulling again.

That dynamic has performed out throughout discretionary spending classes, like retail, eating and journey, as Individuals grapple with persistent inflation, financial uncertainty and, now, hovering gasoline costs.

In live music, this Ok-shaped setting is spurring fears that the decrease finish of the market is falling out fully.

Some are calling the demand shifts “blue dot fever,” named for the blue dots on Ticketmaster seating maps that denote an unsold ticket. For some artists, it is forcing them to take a vital take a look at their performances. Submit Malone, Zayn and The Pussycat Dolls are simply a few examples of artists who’ve canceled exhibits or excursions in current months, with the final group brazenly admitting that poor ticket gross sales was the catalyst.

Final summer, even earlier than the newest pricing pressures, trade analysis instructed larger ticket costs had been serving to to prop up the general well being of the market. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a 2025 report that demand for live music was anticipated to develop at a 7.2% compounded annual development charge between 2024 and 2030.

Common ticket value for a live performance in one of many high 100 international excursions, the report discovered, was $136 in 2024, up 50% from a median of $91 in 2019.

A number of of the foremost ticketing corporations advised CNBC they are not seeing extra present cancellations this summer than a median 12 months.

“Of all of the exhibits Live Nation has on the books this 12 months, lower than 1% have been cancelled,” a spokesperson for the Ticketmaster father or mother stated. “That is not ‘blue dot fever’ — it is a regular touring 12 months; the truth is, 2026 is shaping as much as be a report with live performance ticket gross sales up 11% for the 12 months.”

The spokesperson added that roughly 70% of tickets offered on its platform are priced underneath $100.

Live Nation and Ticketmaster have confronted scrutiny over the corporate’s ticketing practices and dominant affect within the music trade. The corporate confronted authorized challenges over alleged anticompetitive habits and reached a settlement with the Division of Justice in March. A federal jury discovered final month that Live Nation held an anticompetitive monopoly, although the corporate stated in a assertion on the time, “The jury’s verdict is just not the final phrase on this matter.”

StubHub, a ticket reseller, advised CNBC that the corporate is seeing the Ok-shaped sample take form in live music, with demand diverging quick between varied occasions.

Whereas StubHub stated total live performance demand is up almost 10% year-over-year, it isn’t throughout the board. Ticket demand for stadium-scale occasions is up considerably, whereas demand for mid-size and smaller venues is waning.

The occasions which are struggling to promote are dealing with a “supply-sizing downside,” based on Jill Gonzalez, head of client communications at StubHub. The occasions incomes the strongest fan consideration, she stated, are stadium excursions, residencies and marquee festivals.

“What our knowledge makes clear is that fan demand for live music hasn’t softened, however it’s sharpened,” Gonzalez advised CNBC. “Followers are making deliberate selections about the place they spend, and once they determine a present is price it, the demand sign is as robust as something we have seen on our platform.”

Ticket platform SeatGeek stated whereas extra artists are asserting excursions, the resale setting stays wholesome.

“If in case you have extra artists which are flooding the market with excursions, you are going to have the gross variety of cancellations decide up year-over-year, in order that’s anticipated,” stated Oliver Marvin, the corporate’s senior director of strategic finance. “However the total quantity, cancellations as a share of people who find themselves out on tour, is just not an excessive amount of totally different than what we have seen in prior years.”

He added that the corporate is seeing some shoppers dive in for last-minute tickets out of hope the costs will drop for excursions that are not garnering as a lot speedy demand.

Consultants say dropping demand for some exhibits could also be extra nuanced than what meets the attention.

As costs in every single place rise, and shoppers start to be extra intentional about how they’re spending their cash, the blame of unsold tickets could also be extra appropriately positioned on the macroeconomic setting slightly than on the artists themselves, based on Sam Howard-Spink, the director of music enterprise at New York College.

“It is really principally to do with the economics of live efficiency and touring proper now, which can be for the time being, I’d say, very intently tied to financial situations and cost-of-living questions,” Howard-Spink stated.

Tighter spending amongst followers can flip a tour misstep into a catastrophe, he instructed, like if an artist plans dates at an inappropriately sizes venue or in an off-base market. Whereas nostalgia for older acts can often draw crowds, it is struggling to outweigh all different elements.

And whereas greater artists can nonetheless promote out a stadium, less-popular acts are falling quick.

“Harry Kinds, Unhealthy Bunny, Girl Gaga, Ariana Grande — these are acts of, ‘I am not really going to have an excessive amount of hassle,'” he stated. “However for those who’re speaking about like … an early 2000s band that may not simply be capable of pull in these crowds, possibly they’re overconfident within the sorts of venues that they assume that they will replenish.”

Howard-Spink added that the enterprise of music has lengthy been thought-about largely “recession-resistant,” even weathering the pandemic properly. However as a result of live performance tickets are a scarce useful resource, versus music streaming, it is allowed the costs to rise quickly.

Music publicist Eric Alper famous artists could not have foreseen these macroeconomic elements presently at play when reserving out their excursions months upfront. There’s additionally extra artists on tour this 12 months than previous years, he stated, crowding the schedule.

With costs broadly larger, followers are additionally looking for out extra experiences that give them a bang for their buck, he added, because the live music scene sees a rise in residencies, together with distinctive new venues like The Sphere in Las Vegas.

“What folks need, they need the choreography, they need the lights, they need the superior sound, they need nice sightlines,” Alper stated. “They are not simply going to sit down there and spend $150 to go watch a band play with very naked bones.”

Nonetheless, Alper stated, he believes the diehard followers are keen to pay up.

“For those who’re a fan of an artist, I do not assume you care in regards to the excessive ticket costs as a lot as folks assume that they do,” Alper stated. “Folks need the expertise, they usually additionally wish to inform people who they had been there.”