In a sense, that’s true of each Rule 5 choose, who’re all requested to carry out on the MLB degree over the course of a complete season as rookies, regardless of not being valued sufficient by their very own organizations to get a 40-man roster spot.
Though groups are incentivized to carry onto Rule 5 gamers as a result of they will’t be optioned to the minors with out leaving their new membership, that safety solely goes up to now, and lots of wind up again the place they began or with one other staff altogether.
The 2025 Rule 5 Draft is a good instance of how few breakthroughs occur, because it has a giant class (13 gamers) and solely two have supplied optimistic worth for new golf equipment on the MLB degree: Daniel Susac and Miles.
The early success of Miles — who enters Thursday’s motion with a 2.55 ERA and simply three runs allowed in his final 19 innings — isn’t simply uncommon as a result of he’s a Rule 5 choose. Nothing about his profession earlier than reaching Toronto adopted a typical path.
As a result of a litany of accidents, his professional expertise earlier than 2026 amounted to 14.2 innings of regular-season minor-league ball cut up between 2022 and 2024 (none of it above Single-A) and eight.2 frames of Arizona Fall League motion final yr. The final time he had a significant workload was faculty, the place he produced a 6.27 ERA in 145 innings over three years.
A resume like that hardly ever ends in a probability to pitch within the main leagues. The truth that it did implied that the Blue Jays felt strongly sufficient about his stuff.
Even after an uneven spring, the membership was keen to hold him on the Opening Day roster — probably envisioning him as an especially low-leverage possibility who would possibly have the ability to overpower hitters sufficient to outlive on the MLB degree. That’s the profile of many Rule 5 picks: bullpen arms who attempt to make up for their lack of polish with expertise. Based mostly on his lack of expertise, that appeared like a best-case situation for Miles.
That description hasn’t match the right-hander in any respect early in his profession. Whereas the 25-year-old wields above-average velocity (96.1 m.p.h.), he has the profile of a savvy vet, not a uncooked rookie.
Miles is already adept at mixing and matching, throwing 4 pitches (his sinker, four-seamer, slider and curveball) between 19.8 per cent and 34.6 per cent of the time. He doesn’t even have a favorite strikeout pitch but, as he has both 5 or 6 Ks with every of the choices.
Opponents’ incapability to take a seat on a pitch with Miles may assist clarify why they make such tender contact in opposition to him (84.2 m.p.h. — a quantity within the 97th percentile league-wide), although it’s too early in his profession to know if that may maintain up.
It’s not simply the repertoire selection and sequencing that give Miles an unexpectedly veteran flavour. It’s additionally the strike throwing. The precise-hander’s stroll charge (7.0 per cent) is nicely under the MLB common for rookie relievers (11.4 per cent), and relievers general (10.3 per cent). He additionally persistently pitches forward in counts, getting the primary pitch strike 64 per cent of the time. Miles has confronted 100 batters in his younger MLB profession, and simply three have gotten to a 3-0 rely.
Whereas Miles has been usually spectacular, he’s additionally demonstrated a few of the negatives generally related to pitchers deeper of their careers. Particularly, he hasn’t been overpowering.
Whereas his strikeout charge (23 per cent) is roughly common for an MLB reliever (22.3 per cent), he hasn’t missed many bats. His whiff charge (22.7 per cent) is within the thirty first percentile, and his Sixteenth-percentile chase charge (25.8 per cent) suggests opponents can observe his stuff. That is sensible contemplating the motion on it’s pretty normal.
Within the picture under, observe how intently the motion of his pitches aligns with the shaded MLB common — outdoors of his curveball, which has some further glove-side run.
The Stuff+ mannequin additionally charges all 4 of his pitches as virtually precisely common (which it presents as 100).
A few of these outcomes relate to how Miles has been used. The Stuff+ would possibly look a bit higher for his fastballs in a season stuffed with single-inning outings consisting of all max-effort choices. There isn’t a lot proof that may change the motion profile a lot, although.
Whereas the break on the rookie’s pitches varies game-to-game, they haven’t spiked in brief outings, like his debut, or fallen off drastically in his longer appearances — like his final two.
Miles is adjusting to the multi-inning position he’s been given, however it’s additionally true that position appears to suit him surprisingly nicely. Coming into 2026, it might’ve been unfair to count on a vital contribution from Miles attributable to his non-existent observe document. If you happen to have been going to be optimistic, you would possibly undertaking him as a high-Okay, high-BB reliever with sufficient pure stuff to get by.
His instant arrival as a pitcher with a deep repertoire whose sport appears to be like extra like a fourth-starter in his 30s than an up-and-coming fireballer is exceptional contemplating his background. Whether or not he’s ever used as a conventional starter is a query difficult by his minimal profession workload, harm historical past and whether or not the staff has a spot in its rotation for a developmental undertaking within the years forward. That may be put apart for now.
In the mean time, Miles is extra starter-ish than the Blue Jays had any proper to count on once they chosen him within the Rule 5 draft. Contemplating the state of the again of the membership’s 2026 rotation, placing his starter-like traits to make use of in a starter-like position is a welcome bridge to a extra sustainable answer.
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