- Analyst report claims main smartphone market is predicted to decline 14.8% in 2026
- Entry degree smartphone prices have already risen greater than 50% this yr
- Refurbished smartphone gross sales grew 4% year-on-year throughout the first quarter of 2026
The worldwide smartphone market is heading towards a tough 2026 as rising element prices pressure producers to enhance gadget prices, new analysis has claimed.
New findings from FDM CCS Perception observe the first smartphone market is predicted to decline by 14.8% in 2026 as reminiscence shortages proceed affecting manufacturing.
The decline follows a 4.4% year-on-year contraction within the main smartphone market throughout 1Q26, regardless of producers and retailers constructing stock earlier.
Reminiscence shortages push buyers towards refurbished smartphones
As shoppers seek for cheaper options to new devices, the demand for refurbished smartphones is predicted to enhance however so is the worth.
FDM CCS Perception stories that some entry-level smartphones have already skilled worth will increase exceeding 50% in contrast with the earlier yr.
“Many shoppers will maintain onto their telephone for longer, and these results will probably be way more pronounced for shoppers shopping for telephones below $500,” stated Ben Hatton, Analysis Analyst at FDM CCS Perception.
“Some shoppers will want a brand new telephone…and so we do count on extra demand for refurbished smartphones as many are priced out of the brand new gadget market.”
The reminiscence scarcity driving these worth will increase is basically attributed to surging demand from AI information facilities and AI-accelerated computing infrastructure.
These amenities compete for a similar DRAM and NAND flash manufacturing capability that smartphone producers rely on, leaving much less provide obtainable for shopper devices.
Reminiscence parts now signify greater than 30% of the invoice of supplies for some smartphones, growing strain on producers.
The affect is predicted to proceed to have an effect on low- and mid-range devices as corporations alter pricing methods all year long.
The secondary smartphone market has already began benefiting from altering shopper behaviour, with organized gross sales growing by 4% year-on-year throughout 1Q26.
FDM CCS Perception forecasts this market phase will broaden by 15.4% globally throughout 2026 as demand shifts away from new devices.
Nevertheless, stronger demand may additionally create larger refurbished smartphone prices as obtainable provide struggles to match shopper curiosity.
Provide challenges may decide refurbished market development
The refurbished market faces a significant problem as a result of increasing provide relies upon closely on trade-ins, buybacks, and improve programmes.
FDM CCS Perception expects premium smartphones, notably devices priced above $750, to proceed driving a lot of the obtainable trade-in provide.
These devices are much less affected by present pricing pressures, permitting producers and retailers to preserve stronger improve incentives.
“The secondary market has a chance to serve some of the demand that will probably be unfulfilled by the first market. The most important problem within the close to time period is to develop provide throughout a fallow interval of flagship launches,” Hatton stated.
“Nations with mature trade-in programmes will probably be in a a lot stronger place to capitalize on this chance and preserve larger development charges within the secondary market over the remainder of the yr.”
The shift suggests that customers might more and more consider refurbished smartphones as options when new gadget prices proceed rising.
“Demand continues to closely outweigh provide within the world secondary market. Commerce-in reductions, early improve affords and more-lucrative trade-in promotions will probably be key to unlocking the market’s full development potential in 2026 and 2027,” he added.
Whether or not this development produces sustained development will rely on provide availability, pricing stability, and how producers reply to altering market situations.
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