IDC says the smartphone market could be heading in the direction of its worst 12 months on document, with a brand new report predicting there could be a 13.9% decline in shipments this 12 months. The report notes that smartphone shipments are anticipated to fall to 1.09 billion models in 2026, which might mark the steepest annual decline in smartphone historical past.
What’s behind the smartphone cargo drop?
The report notes that reminiscence chip shortages are nonetheless the first driver behind the slowdown. Nevertheless, the market analysis firm says the continued Iran–United States battle has now added contemporary strain on smartphone makers by greater oil and transportation prices.
The mounting financial pressures are mentioned to be forcing smartphone producers to cut back shipments, increase costs and focus on higher-priced segments.
The report additionally notes that common smartphone promoting costs are anticipated to hit a document excessive of $550 in 2026, roughly $100 greater than final 12 months.
“The deepening reminiscence scarcity disaster stays the dominant power behind the document 14% drop this 12 months, however it’s not the one one,” Nabila Popal mentioned within the report.
“The US-Iran conflict has added a contemporary layer of price strain for smartphone OEMs, pushed by rising oil costs and transportation prices. Mixed, these pressures are compelling distributors to cut back shipments, increase costs and focus on greater value tiers,” Popal added.
Finish of ultra-cheap telephone period
The report additionally notes that the “period of ultra-cheap smartphones is over” as producers battle with greater element prices.
The slowdown is predicted to be felt most strongly in rising markets, with shipments within the Center East and Africa predicted to decline by 23%, whereas Central and Japanese Europe are anticipated to see a 19% drop. Asia Pacific markets excluding Japan and China are additionally anticipated to fall by 14%.
“As a result of the sub-$200 phase is shrinking the quickest, the financial fallout is predicted to disproportionately devastate rising markets,” the report famous.
The report additionally warns that smaller Android manufacturers targeted closely on finances smartphones could face the most important challenges over the following 18 months as greater reminiscence and NAND prices proceed squeezing revenue margins.
Defining 12 months for Apple
The report notes that Apple could emerge as one of many few winners regardless of the broader market slowdown. Android telephone shipments are anticipated to decline by 20% year-over-year, though Samsung could nonetheless gain market share due to its stronger premium and mid-range choices.
In the meantime, Apple is claimed to have secured the reminiscence provide it wanted, whereas demand for its iPhone 17 lineup is reportedly sturdy throughout developed markets.
“2026 shall be a defining 12 months for Apple,” Francisco Jeronimo mentioned within the report. “In a 12 months when the broader smartphone market will document its steepest decline in historical past, iOS will ship its highest annual share ever, at 22%.”
Foldable smartphones are additionally anticipated to stay one of many uncommon development classes this 12 months. IDC predicts foldable shipments could develop 20% year-over-year in 2026, helped partly by Apple’s rumoured entry into the foldable phase with the iPhone Extremely later this 12 months.
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